摘要
基于哈密国家基准气象站1951—2016年逐日最高温、最低温和平均气温等资料,运用线性回归、趋势分析、Mann—Kendall检验和主成分分析等方法对哈密极端气温变化特征进行了分析.结果表明:66年来哈密市气温暖化趋势明显,年均最高温增温速率快于年均最低温,增温速率分别为年均温(0.15?C/10a)<年均最低温(0.16?C/10a)<年均最高温(0.28?C/10a);暖昼日数、暖夜日数、夏季日数、暖持续日数和生物生长季均呈上升趋势,热夜日数1996年后呈上升趋势,年均气温日较差以0.11?C/10a的速率上升;冷昼日数、冷夜日数、霜冻日数、冰冻日数、冷持续日数均呈下降趋势;最高温极低值和最低温极低值呈上升趋势,最高温极高值和最低温极高值呈下降趋势;Mann—Kendall检验表明,哈密极端气温极值指数于20世纪50年代和60年代初期发生突变;主成分分析将哈密极端气温指数分为4类,相关分析表明,各暖指数之间、各冷指数之间呈正相关关系,暖指数和冷指数之间显著负相关.
Based on the climatic data of daily average,maximum and minimum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administration at meteorological station in Hami during 1951—2016,the methods of linear regression,trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test and principal component analysis were employed to analyze the characteristics of extreme temperature in Hami from 1951 to 2016.The results show that:in general,the trend of temperature warming in Hami was obvious in the past 66 years,with generally stronger increases in average annual maximum temperature than in average annual minimum temperature,as for climate inclination rate was average temperature(0.15?C/10 a)<lowest temperature(0.16?C/10 a)<highest temperature(0.28?C/10 a)respectively.The occurrence of warm days,warm nights,summer days,warm spell duration days and growing season length all showed a significant increasing trend,and the number of hot nights showed an upward trend after 1996.The average annual diurnal temperature range increased at a rate of 0.11?C/10 a.While the frequency of cold days,cold nights,frost days,ice days and cold spell duration days was found to have a significantly downward trend.The extreme low value of the maximum temperature and the extreme low value of the minimum temperature showed an upward trend,the extreme high value of the maximum temperature and the extreme high value of the minimum temperature showed a downward trend.The Mann-Kendall test showed that the extreme temperature index in Hami changed abruptly in the1950 s and early 1960 s.The principal component analysis classified the extreme temperature index in Hami into four categories.The correlation analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between the warm indices and between the cold indices,and a significant negative correlation between the warm indices and the cold indices.
作者
张志高
苗运玲
邱双娟
耿益新
姬曼琪
ZHANG Zhigao;MIAO Yunling;QIU Shuangjuan;GENG Yixin;JI Manqi(School of Resource Environment and Tourism,Anyang Normal University,Anyang Henan 455000,China;Urumqi Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang,Urumqi Xinjiang 830006,China)
出处
《新疆大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2019年第1期89-97,共9页
Journal of Xinjiang University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41602366)
河南省科技计划项目(182102311111)
