摘要
在实地调查分析荥经县农业资源和农业生产现状诊断的基础上,应用系统动力学理论建立了荥经县农业生产结构优化调整的SD模型,并在计算机上实现了农业生产结构调整的动态仿真。围绕系统资源合理有效利用,产业内部结构更加协调,系统的经济效益和社会效益良性发展,系统的生态环境得到改善总体目标,通过改变退耕面积和种植结构比例等控制变量和控制参数的方法寻求结构调整的优化方案,并对未来农业的结构调整和发展进行了宏观预测。同时对方案二(稳粮扩经增饲)在作物播面结构、产值结构、产品结构和生态效益上进行了调整前与调整后的对比分析,预计到2020年,该方案农业总产值将增加1 75倍,农业人均产值增加1 39倍。
On the basis of investigation and analysis of Yingjing county agricultural resource and actuality evaluation, a system dynamic model about the optimization adjustment of agricultural production structure of Yingjing county is established with system dynamic theory, and a dynamic simulation for the Yingjing agricultural production structure adjustment has been done on the computer. By means of changing control variables and adjusting parameters, the paper seeks the better scheme of structure adjustment, and makes a macro-forecast for the future system, structure and development, thereby provides theoretical and experimental advice for the policy-making for the adjustment of agricultural structure of Yingjing county, on the basis of the overall aim for the development and control of the system, to be specific, the proper and effective utilization of the system, resources, the better harmony of industry internal structure, the good development of the system economic and social benefits, and the better ecological environment.
出处
《四川农业大学学报》
CSCD
2003年第4期328-333,共6页
Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University
基金
十五"四川省重点科技攻关项目"四川盆周山区持续高效农业发展技术研究与示范"(01NG016-01)。
关键词
农业生产结构
结构调整
系统动力学模型
优化调整
盆周山区
四川
荥经县
agricultural production structure
system dynamic model
optimization adjustment
mountain areas around the Sichuan basin
