摘要
为了明确我国民事诉讼量与经济增长之间的关系,文章以1978—2012年由人民法院审理的一审民事案件数与国内生产总值作为样本数据,通过协整分析、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验,对我国民事诉讼量与经济增长的水平值序列进行实证研究.结果表明:中国民事诉讼量的长期收入弹性为0.5359,即国内生产总值每增加一个百分点,对应的拉动民事诉讼量将会增加0.5359个百分点,经济增长对民事诉讼量增长的作用显而易见;经济增长与民事诉讼量仅存在单向因果关系,即经济增长是民事诉讼量的Granger原因,经济增长有助于预测民事诉讼量,民事诉讼量不利于预测经济增长.
In order to define the relationship between the amount of civil action and economic growth, this paper makes empirical research on our country civil action and the level value sequence of economic growth, adopting the quantity of the first trial civil cases of people’s court from1978 to 2012 and gross domestic product as sample data and using cointegration analysis and error correction model and Granger causality test. The results show that the Chinese civil procedure of long-term income elasticity was 0.5359, that is to say, every one percent increase in gross domestic product will pull the civil litigation quantities increased by 0.5359%. The role of economic growth to increase in the amount of civil lawsuits is obvious. One-way causal relationship exists between the economic growth and the amount of civil action, that is, economic growth is the Granger reason for the amount of civil action, and economic growth can help predict the civil litigation, while civil litigation goes against the forecast of the economic growth.
出处
《湖北文理学院学报》
2015年第2期63-66,共4页
Journal of Hubei University of Arts and Science
