摘要
结合行为金融学理论,引入房价上涨预期因素,利用2001-2014年我国31个省市年度面板数据,从"兑现"和"未兑现"视角分析我国房地产财富的区域效应。研究发现,兑现的财富效应与未兑现的财富效应截然不同,房价上涨能促进居民消费,而房价上涨预期通过加剧人们的预防动机,抑制当前消费,且各地区间存在异质性差异,其主要原因是房价上涨预期增加了居民未来生存的心理压力。因此,在促进消费提振内需这一背景下,政府在关注房价对消费影响的同时,还需兼顾房价上涨预期对消费的影响,因地制宜,促使我国房地产财富效应更好实现。
Based on the former study of real estate wealth effect and the behavioral finance theory,the panel data of 31 provinces from 2001 to 2014has been used to analyze the regional difference of real estate wealth in China.It has been found that the realized wealth effect is different from the unrealized wealth effect.The rising of house price can promote the residents' consumption,while the expectation of house price rising reduce current consumption by increasing the people's precautionary motive,and there are heterogeneity differences among regions.The main reason is that the increasing housing price adds the psychological pressure of residents' future survival.Therefore,in the context of stimulating consumption to boost domestic demand,the government should pay attention to the impact of the expectation of the house price rising on consumption,concerning the house price rising according to local conditions,so as to promote the real estate wealth effect to be achieved better.
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第7期14-22,70,共10页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
关键词
房价预期
生命周期理论
兑现财富效应
未兑现财富效应
house price expectation
life-cycle theory
realized wealth effect
unrealized wealth effect
