摘要
本文通过构建动态的城乡二元选择模型,分析了农村进城务工者在返乡务农与留在城镇扩大生产之间的权衡过程,得到结论:破除城乡间人口迁徙的制度障碍,有助于扩大农村创业者的信贷渠道,优化城乡劳动力配置结构,进而提高城乡综合劳动生产率,促进经济增长。数值模拟的结果验证了理论模型并得到的结论,发现无论在利率管制还是在利率市场化的环境中,降低城镇地区进入成本都对刺激信贷扩张与经济增长具有显著的促进作用,但是在利率管制的环境中,这种作用更强。
This paper conducts a dynamic urban-rural two binary choice model and analyses the decision-making process of the rural migrant workers between returning home engaged in agriculture and continuing to stay in towns to expand production.The result indicates that breaking the institutional barriers would be helpful for expanding the credit channel of rural entrepreneurs,optimizing the configuration structure of urban and rural labor force,improving the comprehensive productivity of the whole society and increasing the economy's total output rapidly.The result of numerical simulation verifies the conclusion of theoretical model and finds out that whether it is in the regulated interest rates environment or in the market interest rates environment,reducing the entry cost to urban areas would stimulate credit expansion and economic growth,while the positive effect is stronger in the regulated interest rates environment.
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期55-63,共9页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
关键词
人的城镇化
信贷扩张
经济增长
进入成本
population urbanization
credit expansion
economic growth
entry cost
