摘要
该文旨在探讨国际政治影响汇率变动的规律和机理 ,促进“国际政治金融学”的探索与研究。该文综合运用系统分析、实证分析等方法 ,提出“油价牵动汇率”的理论 ,指出传统汇率变动理论存在的问题及产生的原因 ,联系实际探索影响汇率变动的要素及变化规律 ,侧重分析国际政治对国际油价和汇率变动产生的影响。
Focusing on the problem of the exchange rate fluctuations of the U.S.dollar and the Japanese Yen,this essay attempts to determine the mechanism and rule of law on how international politics influence changes in the exchange rate by means of incorporating international politics with international finance.Based on the argument that the traditional theories could hardly predict the volatile exchange rate market in an accurate manner, the essay puts forward a framework for establishing a discipline of'international political finance'and a theory of'oil prices guiding the exchange rate.'By analyzing the exchange rate fluctuations in recent years,in particular the chain reactions in the international oil market and the exchange rate market before and after the United States attacked Iraq,the essay shows that one of the major factors which influences exchange rate fluctuations is the swing in international oil prices;based upon this theory the essay attempts to further predict the trends in rate fluctuations in the near future.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2003年第10期33-37,共5页
World Economics and Politics
