摘要
考虑现有评价指标的单一化和扁平化,该文旨在构建一种风电功率预测综合评价指标体系。首先,将传统的单一评价指标扩展至功率预测多元评价体系,大大扩展了原有评价指标;其次,提出一种基于离差最大化和灰色关联分析的风电场功率预测评价综合指标,在较大程度上消除多评价指标权重分配的人为因素;最后以某风电汇集区域的风电场为实例进行预测评价,结果表明综合评价指标一方面实现了对风电场功率预测水平科学且全面的评价,另一方面能够指导功率预测的优化方向,具有较好的应用价值和推广前景。
Considering the simplification and flattening of the existing evaluation index,the paper aims to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for wind power prediction. Firstly,the traditional single evaluation index will be extended to comprehensive evaluation system for power prediction which greatly extends the original evaluation index.Secondly,a comprehensive evaluation index for wind farm power prediction based on maximizing deviation and gray relational analysis is proposed to eliminate the human factors of the weight distribution for multiple evaluation indexes to a large extent. Finally,taking a wind farm in a wind power collection area as an example for forecast and evaluate. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation index achieves the scientific and comprehensive evaluation of the wind farm power forecast level,and can guide the optimization direction of power prediction,has good application value and promotion prospects.
作者
姚琦
柳玉
白恺
孙荣富
刘吉臻
Yao Qi;Liu Yu;Bai Kai;Sun Rongfu;Liu Jizhen(School of Control and Computer Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;North China Electric Power Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100045,China;State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company,Beijing 100053,China)
出处
《太阳能学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期333-340,共8页
Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
基金
国家电网公司科技项目
关键词
风电
性能评价
预测
离差最大化
灰色关联分析
wind power
performance evaluation
forecasting
maximizing deviation
gray relational analysis
