摘要
根据适应性学习理论,建立专业机构通胀预期向公众传导的通胀预期异质模型,并将其引入到混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线,利用状态空间模型估计出公众通胀预期及混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线。研究结果表明:中国公众和专业机构通胀预期存在显著的异质性,公众通胀预期具有适应性学习和滞后性特点;中国通货膨胀的形成同时具有前瞻性和后顾性特点。管理通胀预期不仅需要政府对一些宏观经济变量的调控,还需要政府加强信息披露制度,强化公众与央行、专业预测机构之间的信息沟通渠道等措施。
According to the adaptive learning theory,this paper established a heterogeneous inflation expectation conduction model from professional institutions to the public,and mixed it into to the new Keynesian Phillips curve to estimate the public inflation expectations and hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve through state space model.The empirical results showed that:inflation expectation presented significant heterogeneity between the public and professional organizations,and public inflation expectations were provided with adaptive learning and hysteresis.The formation of inflation in our country had the dynamic properties of the forward-looking as well as looking back.Management of inflation expectations required not only government regulation of some macroeconomic variables,but also demanded the government to strengthen the information disclosure system,strengthen microcosmic measures such as information communication channels among the public,the central bank and professional forecasters.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第10期11-16,共6页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家自然科学基金项目<我国通胀预期和风险溢价与宏观因子作用机制的计量研究>(71273044)
东北财经大学科研重点研究基地项目<我国通胀预期不确定性与通胀溢价和货币政策的影响关系研究>(2014029)
辽宁省社会科学联合会资助项目<辽宁经济"稳增长"问题研究--基于内生管理需求视角>(2015lslktjjx-05)
辽宁省教育厅项目<辽宁经济新常态下收入水平
经济结构与经济增长联动机制实证研究>(w2015021)
关键词
通胀预期异质性
适应性学习
混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线
inflation expectations heterogeneity
adaptive learning
hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve
