摘要
中国在对外贸易的过程中出口了大量隐含能,随着贸易规模的不断扩大,这一现状受到了广泛关注。本文基于2002、2007和2012年投入产出表,从完全消费的视角对中国对外贸易中的隐含石油进行定量分析,并利用敏感性分析方法找到影响隐含石油消费的关键系数,借鉴结构化路径分析方法识别出这些关键系数所在的关键产业路径。核算结果表明,2002—2012年中国隐含石油出口量迅速增加,其中化学工业,电气机械及器材制造业,通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业,交通运输及仓储业的累计消耗比例超过40%。敏感性分析结果表明,石油和天然气开采业到石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业,石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业到交通运输及仓储业,石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业到化学工业等的部门间联系是影响隐含石油出口的关键环节。路径分析表明,批发和零售业,化学工业,研究与试验发展业,非金属矿及其他矿采选业等是高隐含石油出口附加值行业。因此,要努力扩大中间投入的能源效率,推动高附加值行业产品的出口,从而实现外向型经济的低油耗发展。
With the continuous expansion of trade, it has been widely acknowledged that there is a large amount of embodied energy exported in China's foreign trade. This study established a model based on input-output tables from 2002, 2007 and 2012 to quantify embodied oil in China's trade from the view of total input. Critical coefficients and critical paths which affected oil consumption were selected by sensitivity analysis and structural path analysis. The accounting results indicated that China exported an increasing amount of embodied oil in 2002-2012, and the cumulative consumption ratio of sectors including "chemical industry", "manufacture of electrical machinery and equipment", "manufacture of communication equipment, computers and other electronic equipment" and "transportation and storage" was more than 40%. Sensitivity analysis showed that links between sectors, such as "extraction of petroleum and natural gas" to "processing of petroleum, coking, processing of nuclear fuel", "processing of petroleum, coking, processing of nuclear fuel" to "transportation and storage", "processing of petroleum, coking, processing of nuclear fuel" to "chemical industry", were the key factors affecting the embodied energy export. Structural path analysis revealed that "wholesale and retail trade", "chemical industry", "research and experimental development" and "mining and processing of non-metal ores and mining of other ores" were higher-value-added sectors. Hence, expanding the technical effect of intermediate input and promoting the export of high value-added products would achieve external economic development with lower embodied oil exports.
出处
《石油科学通报》
2017年第4期546-556,共11页
Petroleum Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"我国国民经济中隐含石油的测算
路径分解与出口结构优化研究"(71303258)
国际自然科学基金项目"中国油气开发中能源和水的耦合关系与协同控制研究"(71673297)
教育部人文社科基金"我国隐含石油进出口结构优化的多目标决策及策略研究"(13YJC630148)
中国石油大学(北京)优秀青年教师研究基金(ZX20150130)联合资助
