摘要
水合物的形成与堵塞问题是深海油气资源开发的主要风险之一,准确预测水合物堵管的概率是保障油气管线流动安全的基础。本文将基于可靠性的极限状态方法,引入水合物堵塞风险计算中,建立了基于水合物生成及凝析液流动特性的数学模型。综合考虑管道运行参数的不确定性,运用LHS和POD方法对堵塞风险的极限状态方程进行求解,实现了以概率形式定量描述天然气凝析液管道中水合物堵塞的风险,能够比较准确预测水合物堵管时间和堵管位置,为天然气凝析液管道防堵提供理论支持。
Hydrate formation and plugging are the main risks in the process of deep sea oil production.The prediction of hydrate plugging probability is the foundation of the safe operation of gas-condensate pipelines.In this paper,by introducing a limit state method of reliability to hydrate plugging risk calculation,we established a mathematical model based on hydrate formation and flow properties.We comprehensively considered the uncertainty of pipeline operation parameters and we used Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition(POD) methods to solve the limit state equation of plugging risk.Probability analysis of hydrate plugging in gas-condensate pipelines has been realized.
出处
《石油科学通报》
2016年第2期257-269,共13页
Petroleum Science Bulletin
