摘要
针对当前研究较少考虑到突发事件下辟谣信息和多种谣言信息共存并相互竞争的现状,首先对研究问题进行了界定,在此基础上采用Lotka-Volterra模型的建模思路构建了辟谣信息与两种代表性谣言信息的相互竞争模型.然后,分析了模型的平衡点及其稳定性条件,并据此得到了舆论生态系统演化的不同结果状态.最后,通过情景仿真考查了舆论生态系统演化的影响因素及其作用规律,并以2011年日本核泄漏事件为例对其合理性进行了验证.结果表明,提高辟谣力度和争夺辟谣时间是维护舆论生态系统稳定运行的关键决策;辟谣力度的提高虽然对两种谣言支持者数量的峰值影响不明显,但是可以显著降低其稳态结果和缩短其达到稳态的时间.
In view of the fact that the existing studies are less concerned with the coexistence and mutual competition among rumor-refuting information and multiple rumors under the situation of emergencies, the research problems of this paper are first defined, and then the modeling ideas of Lotka-Volterra model are applied to develop a model of mutual competition between rumor-refuting information and two kinds of representative rumors. Then,equilibrium points of the model and their stability conditions are analyzed, afterwards the different evolution results of the public opinion ecosystem are obtained. Finally, the scenario simulation is taken to test the influencing factors and their impact on the evolution of the public opinion ecosystem, and the 2011 nuclear leakage accident in Japan is taken as an example to verify the rationality of them. The results show that increasing the strength and fighting for the time of refuting rumors are the key decisions to maintain the stable operation of the public opinion ecosystems;Although the increase in strength of refuting rumors has little impact on the peak of supporters for the two kinds of rumors respectively, it can significantly reduce their steady-state results and shorten their time to reach them.
作者
王治莹
彭婷婷
王伟康
WANG Zhi-ying;PENG Ting-ting;WANG Wei-kang(School of Management Science&Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Ma'anshan 243032,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2019年第5期160-170,共11页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(71704001
71601002)
安徽省自然科学基金(1808085QG224
1708085MG168)
关键词
辟谣信息
谣言信息
竞争
舆论生态系统
rumor-refuting information
rumors
competition
public opinion ecosystem
