摘要
本文通过对上海未来百年海平面上升、地壳升降及地面沉降三因素的分析,得到1990-2090年间上海市相对海面上升值,提出五种可能的方案,并认为未来海面上升位低于57cm高于127cm是非常不可能的低概率事件.在五种方案的前提下,初步分析了海面上升对风暴潮重现期的影响,定量说明了未来防洪抗灾任务的艰巨性.
Located on the eastern edge of the Yangtze Delta, Shanghai always faces the threats of flooding, typhoon and storm surge. However, apart from these, it will be disastrously affected by the sea level rise (SLR) as a result of greenhouse effect. To calculate the relative sea level rise (RSLR) in Shanghai, the paper not only considers the future eustatic rise, but also takes the vertical displacement of the earth's crust and groud subsidence into account. The paper puts forward the values of RSLR, and includes five scenarions, one of which, scenario E, considers the effect of RSLR on the height of storm surge. It has also shown that the value of RSLR greater than 127cm or less than 57cm is highly impossible and much lower probability incident. Based on the five scenarions, the paper analyses the impact of RSLR on the return period of storm surge, thus quantitatively indicating the need of future flood protection.
出处
《南京大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
1992年第4期614-622,共9页
Journal of Nanjing University（Natural Science）
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
海平面
绝对上升
相对上升
上海
eustatic sea level rise
relative sea level rise
vertical displacement of earth crust
ground subsidence
storm surge
