摘要
加入WTO后 ,降低进口品关税等措施将影响人民币均衡汇率水平 ,同时开放经济下国内货币政策、财政政策等宏观经济政策调整也会改变均衡汇率水平。本文运用动态一般均衡的方法 ,探讨中国在加入世界贸易组织之后 ,关税税率调整、货币供应量增长率改变、财政政策调整等措施对实际均衡汇率的长期效应。把货币引入生产函数和消费者的效用函数 ,我们扩展了由Turnovsky提出的两商品资本积累模型 ,利用参数赋值(calibration)的方法进行了均衡状态下的比较静态分析。研究发现降低进口品关税使人民币面临贬值压力 ,而政府增加税收 ,减少对贸易品的消费则有利于人民币的保值和升值。实证研究结果表明 :国外实际利率水平下降 ,实际货币供应量增长率降低都将引起人民币均衡汇率贬值。
After China's accession to the WTO,policy measures such as the declining of tariff will have some influences on China's real equilibrium exchange rate; meanwhile,Monetary and fiscal Policy adjustments in an open economy can also change the equilibrium exchange rate.Adopting dynamic general equilibrium method,This paper examines the long-run effects of tariffs,monetary expansion and fiscal policy changes on China's real equilibrium exchange rate after China's joining the WTO.We extend Turnovsky's two goods capital accumulation model by adding money to both firm's production function and consumer's utility function,and explore steady state comparative static analysis through calibration.The results suggest that a decrease of tariff will create a real depreciation of the exchange rate,while a tax increase and a reduction in government spending on traded goods will cause a real appreciation.Empirical results indicate that both the descending of foreign real interest rate and a slump of monetary expansion will induce a real depreciation of China's currency.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2002年第5期13-21,共9页
Economic Research Journal
