摘要
根据航班离港流程及滑出时间预测的问题属性,将滑出过程分解为无障碍滑行至跑道端及在跑道端排队等待起飞两个阶段。分析了进离港航班对滑出时间的影响,提出了一种场面交通状况衡量指标及基于该指标的无障碍滑出时间计算模型。并将跑道提供服务的过程建模为M/G/1/∞随机服务系统,建立了基于排队论的等待起飞时间预测模型。以北京首都国际机场航班运行数据为例,使用单个航班及以15min为间隔的平均滑出时间的预测准确率验证了模型的有效性,与首都机场当前的滑出时间计算模型进行对比,预测准确率显著提高。
Taxi-out time prediction is an effective method for improving airport surface operational efficiency,and it is important in surface traffic management and air traffic management.The taxi-out process is divided into two phases according to the flight departure process and the characteristics of taxiout time prediction problem.Two phases are the flight taxiing to the runway queue without any obstacles and the taxi-out delay in the queue.After analyzing the influence of departure and arrival flights on the taxi-out time,a measure index of surface traffic and an unimpeded taxi-out time calculation model is proposed.Runway service process is modeled as M/G/1/∞ random service system,and a queue time prediction model is established based on queuing theory.Finally,the predicted average taxi-out time with 15 min intervals in a day of individual flight is used to verify the accuracy of model at Beijing Capital International Airport.Moreover,a comparison with the result of calculation model of Beijing Capital International Airport shows that the proposed model performs significant improvement in prediction accuracy.
出处
《南京航空航天大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第5期772-780,共9页
Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics
基金
国家自然科学基金(61502499)资助项目
中国民航科技创新引导资金项目重大专项(MHRD20140105)资助项目
中央高校科研业务经费项目(3122013C005)资助项目
中国民航大学科研启动基金(2013QD18X)资助项目
中央高校基本科研业务费中国民航大学专项(3122014D032)资助项目
中国民航信息技术科研基地开放基金课题(CAAC-ITRB-201401)资助项目
中央高校基本科研业务费面上项目(3122015D015)资助项目
