摘要
基于吸入因子概念 ,建立了污染物排放造成的人体暴露的计算方法 .应用CALPUFF长距离扩散模型和多元回归分析对湖南省 1 7个电厂 (2 4个排放源 )的一次细颗粒 (PM2 5)、SO2 和NOx 排放进行了研究 .结果表明 ,在半径 5 0 0km范围内 ,PM2 5、SO2 - 4和NO- 3 的平均吸入因子分别为 9 73× 1 0 - 6 、2 3 9× 1 0 - 6 和 2 4 7× 1 0 - 6 .回归分析表明 ,PM2 5的吸入因子与烟囱高度及人口数量有很高的相关性 (R2 =0 83 ) ,SO2 - 4吸入因子与烟囱高度无关 ,与人口数量有较好的相关性 (R2 =0 64 ) ,而NO- 3 的吸入因子与烟囱高度、人口数量的相关性较高 (R2 =0 74 ) .基于回归方程和人口分布地图 ,对湖南省污染排放的吸入因子进行区划 ,得到的吸入因子等值图反映了人口分布对吸入因子的影响 。
Estimate of population exposure to air pollution is necessary to health impact assessment. Based on the concept of intake fraction, a rapid population exposure assessment method was developed in this paper. The CALPUFF atmospheric dispersion model was applied to estimate intake fractions of primary and secondary fine particles emitted from a set of 17 power plants in Hunan Province. Results showed that within 500km from the emission source, average values of intake fraction were 9 73×10 -6 for PM 2 5 , 2 39×10 -6 for sulfate and 2 47×10 -6 for nitrate. From regression analysis, good correlations were found for the relations among intake fraction of PM 2.5 , stack height, and population ( R 2=0 83), and intake fraction of SO 2- 4 and population ( R 2=0 64), and intake fraction of NO - 3, stack height and population ( R 2=0 74). Iso-intake fraction maps were produced based on the regression equations and population distribution, which reflected the differentiation of population density and enabled simple impact assessment for emission sources in this region.
出处
《环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第3期16-20,共5页
Environmental Science
基金
世界银行资助项目 (P0 62 0 15 )
关键词
吸入因子
人体暴露
颗粒物
回归分析
intake fraction
population exposure
particulate matters
regression analysis
