摘要
分析了论文时序分布特征与能源结构研究进展,从我国能源结构特点、影响因素、优化模型和建议对策等方面综述了能源结构研究现状,并探讨了未来研究方向,以期促进我国能源结构研究工作。研究结果表明:①我国能源结构优化研究论文时序分布以2004年为界,前期研究处于初级阶段,后期论文数量和质量都明显提升,能源结构研究进入快速发展阶段;②我国能源结构特点:以煤为主、石油对外依赖度高、能源效率低、能源技术落后、能源价格体系扭曲、资源配置效率低下等;③影响能源消费结构的因素主要包括能源价格、能源禀赋、经济增长、人口、产业结构、能源消耗量、碳排放约束等;④未来基于清洁煤技术和可再生能源博弈的能源结构转型路径优化的研究可为我国能源行业发展提供借鉴和参考;能源结构评价指标体系的构建,可定量评估能源结构优化工作,具有重大指导意义。
China’s energy structure dominated by coal has severely hampered the development of low-carbon economy. A great many of experts and scholars have done a lot of studies on optimization of China’s energy structure. In that context,temporal distribution characteristics of papers and progress of energy structure are analyzed. The progress of energy structure is reviewed from the aspect of characteristics of energy structure,influence factors,optimization model and countermeasures. Then the research directions in the future are forecasted to guide the energy structure research. The results are as follows:(1)research on optimization of China’s energy structure is at the initial stage and in a stage of rapid development after 2004,the quality and quantity of papers are improved significantly in the later stage;(2)characteristics of energy structure include dominant position of coal,high outer dependency for oil,low energy efficiency,backward energy technique,distortions in the prices of energy and low resources disposition efficiency;(3)influence factors include energy price,resource endowment structure,economic development,population, industrial structure and energy consumption;(4) study on energy structure transformation path optimization and energy structure evaluation system in the future is of great significance.
作者
杨英明
孙建东
李全生
YANG Ying-ming;SUN Jian-dong;LI Quan-sheng(China Energy Investment Corporation Ltd.,Beijing 100011,China;Department of Thermal Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《煤炭工程》
北大核心
2019年第2期149-153,共5页
Coal Engineering
基金
工程院咨询项目"碳约束条件下我国能源结构优化研究"(2016-ZD-07-08)
关键词
能源结构
时序分布
影响因素
优化模型
energy structure
review
influence factors
optimization model
