摘要
本文在分析财政赤字与税收、国债之间关系的基础上,指出财政赤字的内生性。通过一系列模型证明了以下观点:从长期看,税收的增长速度应小于GDP的增长速度,减税趋势不可避免;国债负担率的增长速度较快;短期内,赤字财政在稳健的货币政策的配合下,对经济增长有一定的积极作用,但长期内对经济增长有一定的负作用;相机抉择不能合理解释经济现实。
Based on the analysis of the relations among financial deficit,tax revenue and national debt,this paper points out the edogenous nature of the financial deficit. Through a series of models,it proves the following views: (1)the growth rate of the tax revenue should be smaller than that of GDP in a long run; the growth rate of the bearing rate of the national debt is so fast that it is unavoidable to decrease tax; (2)in the short run, deficit financing has positive function to economic growth under the cooperation of prudent monetary policy, but in a long run,it has negative effects on the economic growth; (3)the theory of positive decision can't explain economic reality reationally.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2003年第3期16-22,共7页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70071027)
