摘要
本文采取行为实验方法,以绩差企业为研究对象,从业绩归因的部位/稳定性以及合理性/自利性程度两组特征出发,考察了业绩归因对股票投资行为的影响路径和作用机制。研究发现,外部归因和不稳定归因都可以有效提高投资者对管理层能力的评价。在合理归因的前提条件下,适当的自利性程度也可以起到正面作用;不合理归因反而会降低投资者对管理层的评价。对管理层评价的高低又传导至投资者对企业未来业绩和股价变动的预期,从而产生对应的股票投资行为。
In practice, managers often provide self-serving disclosures that blame poor financial performance on external factors and attribute good operating results to themselves. The purpose of self-serving disclosure is to protect them from being punished for bad performance or receive more credits for good performance. In the current study, we develop and test several hypotheses regarding whether management's self-serving attribution behavior influences investor's perception and alters their following investment decisions. In particular, by conducting experiment with 150 MBA and MPAcc students, this study examines the joint effect of location of attribution(external factor vs. internal factor) and persistence of explanation(persistent vs. not persistent) in Experiment 1. The result in Experiment 1 suggests that compared to the situation in which no explanation had been provided, blaming poor financial performance on temporary external factors will enhance investors' evaluation towards management. Whereas, persistent and internal attribution can greatly lower it. By conducting Experiment 2 with 150 real investors, we examine the joint effect of plausibility of explanation(plausible vs. implausible) and the extent of self-serving disclosure(high self-serving extent vs. low selfserving extent).The result in Experiment 2 indicates the significant effect of the plausibility of explanation. Market can only be convinced by plausible attributions, while blaming poor financial performance even can 'backfire' if investors find their explanations implausible. Moreover, this effect is moderated by the extent of self-serving disclosure. Through analyzing the path models in both experiments, we depict that management's self-serving disclosure will influence investor's evaluation towards management, investors′ expectation of firm performance, expectation of future stock price, and consequently impact their future investment behavior. Overall, the current study demonstrates that although investors are skeptical to management's expla
出处
《南开管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期113-123,134,共12页
Nankai Business Review
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(12XNJ015)资助
