摘要
通过查阅大量文献 ,对应用蒙特卡罗仿真方法评估复杂系统可靠性、可用性和 MTBF进行了全面的分析研究 .通常在评估复杂大型系统的可靠性、可用性和 MTBF方面有 4个主要困难 :系统结构可以很复杂 ;子系统可能服从各种失效分布 ;对于可修系统来说 ,子系统可以服从任意失效和修复分布 ;子系统的失效数据有时也不充分 ,可靠性试验样本趋向于小样本 .用经典统计学去获得它们的统计置信限很困难并且经常是不可能的 .而仿真技术是解决这类问题的一个值得重视的研究方向 .
Reliability and availability evaluations of complex system using monte carlo techniques are researched through a great mass of data in this treatise.Generally there are four main difficalties in evaluating complex large-scale system reliability, availability and MTBF:the system structure may be very complex; subsystems may follow various failure distributions; subsystems may conform to arbitrary failure and repair distributions for maintained systems; the failure data of subsystems are sometimes not sufficient, reliability test sample sizes tend to be small. It is difficult and often impossible to obtain confidence limits of them by classical statistics. Combine Monte Carlo technique with Bayes method is to research a subject.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第2期80-85,共6页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金 ( 79930 90 0 )
