摘要
退市风险警示制度是任何国家股市的一个重要制度。上市公司遇到退市风险警示,轻则会给个别公司的股价带来重大影响乃至导致退市,重则会殃及相应版块甚至造成股市恐慌。本文通过引入等截距变换对现有的雷达图评价模型进行改进,建立基于改进型雷达图的退市风险预警模型。本文的创新与特色一是通过'把相邻两个指标的顶点用共同的等截距上的顶点相连接而形成的多边形'的等截距变换对现有雷达图评价方法进行改进建立退市风险预警模型,确保了无论怎样改变指标排列次序、一个特定对象的评价结果是不变的、唯一的。解决了现有研究直接用相邻指标顶点连线构成的多边形的作法进而产生的'由于指标排列次序的变动而导致的同一个对象的评价结果截然不同'的问题。二是通过将上交所出台的《股票上市规则》中12种实施退市风险警示的情形作为指标体系中的全部指标,并把审计报告意见等非财务指标纳入评价体系,建立了符合真实市场退出制度的预警体系,改变了现有研究忽略上市公司退市规则中的非财务指标的不合理状况。并以三种*ST风险水平的上市公司为代表进行实证分析验证了本文建立的预警模型的合理性。
The delisting risk warning model is the key one for defending the normal order of the stock market and the interests of investors.It plays an important role in optimizing the allocation of resources in the capital market and in taking the health of the market.The delisting risk of any companies has a significant impact on its stock price,and even leads it to be delisted.Once the delisting early warning model is flawed,wrong predictions are inevitable.When the'good'company is predicted as a'bad'one,it will damage the shareholder rights and interests of the'good'company,even lead the company to be delisted from the capital market.And when the'bad'company is predicted as the'good'one,it will directly mislead the investors and the public,even makes the wrong investment decisions and causes to huge losses.The method ofradar map(RC)presents the advantages of intuitive,uncomplicated,and interpretable in the comprehensive evaluation of the existing research.The drawback is that the evaluation results may be completely different and even the opposite when the order of indicators changes in radar map.This may be one of the reasons why radar map has not been applied to delisting early warning research and application.We overcome the drawbacks above,in order to apply the radar char method to establish the delisting early warning model.The principle of using the equal interceptradar map(EIRC),our proposed in this paper,to carry out the delisting risk is as follows:we present the delisting risk by using the two areas in radar map enclosed respectively by the single indicator and all of indicators.The larger the area is,the greater the delisting risk is.When any one of the two areas enclosed approaches or reaches its maximum area value in the radar map,the delisting risk of the company by*ST is greater.On the contrary,the smaller the area in radar map is,the less delisting risk of the company by*ST is.In this paper,we improve the RC based on equal intercept transformation and establish the delisting risk early warning model bas
作者
周颖
张舒明
Zhou Ying;Zhang Shuming(Faculty of Management and Economics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,Liaoning,China)
出处
《科研管理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第9期241-251,共11页
Science Research Management
基金
国家社科基金一般项目(16BTJ017,起止时间:2016.06-2019.12)
关键词
退市风险
风险预警
雷达图
等截距变换
delisting risk
risk warning
radar map
equal intercept transformation
