摘要
"一带一路"倡议将催生巨大的海外农业投资市场,是缓解中国经济增长与农业资源紧缺长期矛盾的重要途径。本文基于UNComtrade(联合国商品贸易统计)数据测算了中国与"一带一路"国家农产品贸易的显性比较优势指数(RCA)、贸易结合度指数(TII)和贸易互补性指数(TCI),在总量层面和HS编码01-24产品层面评估了贸易现状;利用16个"一带一路"国家的面板数据回归估计了随机前沿贸易引力模型,并根据随机前沿效率系数测算了"一带一路"国家对中国农产品贸易潜力。结果表明,"一带一路"国家相对于中国具有较强的农产品比较优势,双边农产品贸易互补性较强且贸易潜力巨大。本文建议,利用农业资源禀赋差异加快"一带一路"沿线地区资源获取型农业投资开发,从提升海外农业资源配置能力,着手保障粮食安全。
The Belt and Road initiative will spark huge overseas markets and is also expected to relieve the long-term contradictions between economic growth and shortage of agricultural resources in China. Based on the data provided by UNComtrade,this article calculated the agricultural trade comparative advantage index,trade intensity index and trade complementary index between China and B&R countries. On the level of gross trade and products coded by HS 01-24,we assessed the current situation of trade;By using panel data from 16 sample countries,we estimated the stochastic frontier trade gravity model,and then calculated the potential agricultural exports from the B&R countries to China by SFA efficiency. The result shows that B&R countries shows remarkable comparative advantage and trade complementarity in agricultural exports to China,there is huge trade potential between them. The implication of this article is that China should speed up agricultural investment along the 'Belt and Road' by making use of agricultural resources endowment difference,and thus to improve the ability of global allocation of agricultural resources.
出处
《开发性金融研究》
2018年第3期26-36,共11页
Development Finance Research
