摘要
除了杠杆率之外,总债务偿付负担也是金融与实体经济发展之间的一座桥梁。通过对1985-2013年美国数据的分析,本文发现其对信贷和支出增长有较大的负面影响。由于杠杆率与债务偿付负担之间强有力的相互作用,信贷和支出出现了多个长期且影响巨大的周期,且与信贷峰值和谷底的典型化事实相符。
In addition to leverage, the aggregate debt service burden is an important link between financial and real developments. Using US data from 1985 to 2013, we find that it has sizable negative effects on credit and expenditure growth.Strong interactions between leverage and the debt service burden lead to large and protracted cycles in credit and expenditure that match the stylised facts of credit booms and busts.
出处
《金融市场研究》
2015年第8期125-135,共11页
Financial Market Research
关键词
商业周期
信贷泡沫
杠杆
债务偿付负担
business cycle,credit booms,leverage,the debt service burden
