摘要
中国人口结构在未来20年将迎来世代交替,根据国际经验,人口结构的变化将对股市造成影响,本文借鉴美国研究方法,比较中国的中年人口与青年人口比例(MY)和市盈率的变化趋势,得出两者高度相关的结果,分析中国股票市场过去变动的原因,并预测中国股市未来的发展方向,发现企业盈利水平将是未来影响中国股市的重要因素。
China will see major demographic changes in the next 20 years as its population ages and this will have a considerable impact on the stock market. This article makes use of research methods used in the U.S. to examine spending patterns of younger and middle aged groups in China and track changes in price-earnings ratios of listed companies. The authors conclude there is a high correlation to profit trends and make predictions on the development of China's stock market as well as future corporate profits.
出处
《金融市场研究》
2015年第4期61-68,共8页
Financial Market Research
关键词
人口结构
股票市场
市盈率
demographics,stock market,price-earnings ratio
