摘要
2018年中国经济总体较为平稳,但也出现了一定的下行压力。主要表现为:投资和消费增速下滑幅度较大;出口增速出现回落迹象;民营企业利润显著下滑;企业用工需求开始减弱;企业家、居民和银行家等微观主体信心指数较为低迷。当前,我国经济内需持续疲软,外需增长难以持续。民营企业生产经营压力加大导致经济内在增长动力不足,公众的乐观预期也出现一定程度的减弱,这些因素将掣肘未来我国经济的增长。宏观政策应针对我国经济运行中可能出现的民企债务违约、居民消费增速过快下滑、民间投资再次快速下滑、地方债务进一步膨胀、股市持续低迷与人民币汇率贬值扰乱公众预期、外部风险对国内经济的冲击等风险,加大力度和加强协调。具体看,需要做好以下工作:加强疏通货币政策传导机制;重点通过减税降费等方式降低当前偏高的宏观税负;进一步完善宏观审慎管理框架;加强各类宏观政策之间的协调配合;加强宏观政策的预期管理。
In 2018,China's economy was generally stable,but there was also some downward pressure. The main performances were: the growth rate of investment and consumption has declined by a large margin; the export growth rate has shown signs of decline; the profits of private enterprises have declined significantly; the demand for employment of enterprises has begun to weaken; the micro-subject confidence index of entrepreneurs,residents and bankers is relatively low. At present,China's domestic economic demand continues to be weak,and the growth of external demand is difficult to sustain. The pressure on the production and operation of private enterprises has led to insufficient internal economic growth momentum,and the public's optimistic expectations have also weakened to some extent. These factors will hinder the growth of China's economy in the future. Macroeconomic policies need to intensify and strengthen coordination and address risks that may arise in China's economic operations,such as debt defaults of private enterprises,rapid decline in consumer consumption,rapid decline in private investment,further expansion of local debt,continued downturn in the stock market depreciation of the RMB exchange rate to disrupt public expectations,and external risks to the domestic economy. Specifically,it is necessary to deal with the following task: further dredge the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; focus on reducing the current high macro tax burden by reducing taxes and fees; further improve the macro-prudential management framework; strengthen coordination between various macro policies; strengthen the expectation management of macroeconomic policies.
出处
《经济纵横》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期58-68,共11页
Economic Review Journal
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"‘十三五’时期中国宏观调控体系的改革与转型问题研究"(编号:18JD790015)
国家自然科学基金应急管理项目"国内经济政策环境与金融风险防范"(编号:71850003)的成果
关键词
宏观经济
宏观政策
经济增长
预期管理
货币政策
Macroeconomics
Macroeconomic Policy
Economic Growth
Expectation Management
Monetary Policy
