摘要
近年来,蔬菜价格波动加剧,引发社会关注。价格过低可能导致出现蔬菜弃收现象,这不仅是菜农的损失,更是资源的浪费。本文分析了农产品生产者在农业生产经营过程中不同阶段的投入决策行为,构建其保留价格的决定模型,并利用理论分析结果对产地弃收现象进行经济学解释。结论表明:物流运输成本高和不耐储存的特征限制了蔬菜供给在时空上的分散配置,使蔬菜生产波动大部分传导为供给波动,进而引发供需失衡和价格波动。与此同时,物流运输成本、储藏成本和收割环节成本又推高了农户的预期保留价格。当市场价格(或预期市场价格)低于农户的保留价格(或预期保留价格)时,农户就会选择弃收。因此,应从物流成本、机械化收割蔬菜、降低储藏成本方面减少蔬菜弃收现象。
In recent years, vegetable price volatility has intensified, affecting the 'three rural'.Too low prices may lead to the abandonment of vegetable plots, which is not only the loss of vegetable farmers, but also the waste of resources. This paper analyzes the investment decision-making behavior of agricultural producers, constructs a decision model for its reserve price, and uses the theoretical analysis results to explain the economics of the abandonment of production. The conclusions show that the characteristics of high logistics transportation cost and storage stability limit the decentralized allocation of vegetable supply in time and space, so that the fluctuation of production production is mostly transmitted as supply fluctuation, which leads to imbalance between supply and demand and price fluctuation. Logistics transportation costs, storage costs and harvesting costs have pushed up the expected reserve prices of farmers. When the market price is lower than the farmer’s reserve price, the farmer will have a discard. Therefore, the phenomenon of farmer abandonment should be reduced in terms of logistics costs, mechanized harvesting of vegetables, and reduction of storage costs.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2019年第4期96-99,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
关键词
蔬菜价格波动
实物期权
保留价格
二叉树模型
蔬菜弃收
Vegetable price fluctuations
Real options
Reserve prices
Binary tree model
Abandoned production
