摘要
本文通过建立东亚地区国家基于机电行业PPI的双边实际汇率数据库,实证分析了东亚地区各国汇率波动对东亚区域内机电行业中间产品贸易的影响。东亚地区加工贸易的典型特征是进口中间产品、加工成最终产品、出口到国际市场,无论是汇率水平、汇率波动和对最终产品的世界需求都作为影响中间品贸易的重要因素。研究发现:除日本、印度尼西亚、新加坡以外,中国、韩国、马来西亚、泰国实际汇率上升会抑制机电行业中间品的出口;除新加坡外,东亚地区其余样本国家的汇率波动都会在不同程度上抑制机电行业中间品贸易。
This paper constructs a new dataset of industry-specific real exchange rate of electromechanical products in East Asia and empirically analyzes the effect of exchange-rate volatility on the intra-regional trade of electromechanical products in East Asia.The processing trade in East Asia has a typical characteristic of importing intermediate goods and exporting finished products to world.The exchange rate,exchange-rate volatility and world demand are important factor in the trade of intermediate goods.The study found that exchange rate and exchange-rate volatility have no long-term co-integration relationship with the intermediate goods trade in Philippine and Taiwan Province of China.In addition to Indonesia,the real exchange rate in Singapore,China,Japan,Korea,Malaysia and Thailand will curb exports of intermediate goods.Exchange-rate volatility in China,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Indonesia,Singapore and Thailand will suppress the intermediate goods trade in varying degrees.
出处
《工业经济论坛》
2016年第1期40-52,共13页
Industrial Economy Review
基金
国家社科基金项目"欧债危机对区域经济一体化理论的挑战与我国参与亚洲区域经济合作的策略研究"(批准号:12CGJ025)
关键词
汇率水平
汇率波动
东亚
exchange rate
exchange-rate volatility
