摘要
为研究四川盆地臭氧(O_3)时空分布特征及其气象成因,对四川盆地18个城市2015—2016年国控环境监测站点和气象台站数据进行了研究分析.结果表明:2015—2016年四川盆地O_3污染愈发严重,高值污染区呈扩张态势,污染区主要位于盆地西部成都、德阳、资阳、眉山、内江一带和以广安为中心的周边区域.O_3浓度有明显的季节变化特征:夏季(110.70±41.52)μg·m^(-3)>春季(95.24±41.23)μg·m^(-3)>秋季(67.58±39.55)μg·m^(-3)>冬季(47.17±41.15)μg·m^(-3).基于广义相加模型(GAM)分析发现O_3浓度与气压、气温、相对湿度、风速、日照时数、降水量间均呈非线性关系,其中日照时数、相对湿度以及气温对四川盆地O_3浓度影响较大,而风速、气压以及降水量对O_3浓度影响相对较小.通过构建GAM模型对四川盆地18个城市O_3污染的主导气象因子进行识别,并对2017年O_3浓度进行预测和检验,结果显示GAM模型能较为准确地预测四川盆地各城市O_3浓度的变化趋势.
In order to study the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of O3 and its meteorological cause over Sichuan Basin,the data of national control environment monitoring stations and meteorological stations located in 18 cities in Sichuan Basin from 2015 to 2016 were analyzed.The results showed that the O3 pollution was becoming serious and the high-value area expanded significantly in Sichuan Basin from 2015 to 2016.The high-value area was mainly located in the western of the basin,including Chengdu,Deyang,Ziyang,Meishan,Neijiang and Guang'an.The concentration of O3 had obvious seasonal variation characteristics:summer(110.70±41.52)μg·m-3>spring(95.24±41.23)μg·m-3>autumn(67.58±39.55)μg·m-3>winter(47.17±41.15)μg·m-3.Based on the Generalized Additive Model(GAM),it was found that O3 has a nonlinear relationship with air pressure,temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,sunshine duration and precipitation.The sunshine duration,relative humidity and temperature had a great influence on O3 concentration in the Sichuan Basin.While,the effects of wind speed,pressure and precipitation on O3 concentration are less significant.The GAM model was further used to identify the dominant meteorological factors in 18 cities in Sichuan Basin and to forecast the O3 concentration in 2017.The results showed that GAM model could predict the trend of O3 concentration in each city very well.
作者
胡成媛
康平
吴锴
张小玲
王式功
王紫潇
欧阳正午
曾胜兰
向卫国
HU Chengyuan;KANG Ping;WU Kai;ZHANG Xiaoling;WANG Shigong;WANG Zixiao;OUYANG Zhengwu;ZENG Shenglan;XIANG Weiguo(Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225;School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084)
出处
《环境科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第3期809-820,共12页
Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae
基金
国家重点研发计划(No.2018YFC0214001)
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划(No.91644226)
国家自然科学基金(No.41405063
41505122)
四川省科技计划重大前沿项目(No.2018JY0011)
四川省教育厅理科重点项目(No.18ZA0086)
成都信息工程大学科研基金(No.KYTZ201725)
关键词
臭氧
四川盆地
时空分布
气象因子
GAM模型
预测
ozone
Sichuan Basin
spatial and temporal distribution
meteorological factors
generalized additive model
prediction
