摘要
影响财政收入的因素很多,除三次产业发展水平、技术结构等因素外,人口数量、结构和分布的变化对财政收入也产生重要的影响。本文在分析实行计划生育以来山东省人口发展的现状及存在的问题基础上,通过编制离散型人口预测模型,预测2015-2030年山东省人口发展趋势。结合人口预测结果,模拟分析了人口规模变化、人口结构变化、城市化水平变化以及流动人口规模变动对未来财政收入的影响。从分析结果可以看出,流动人口对山东省财政收入的贡献举足轻重,未来在财政支出安排上,应充分考虑流动人口需求,通过高质量的公共服务和完善的社会福利,吸引他们为山东省经济和财政收入增长做贡献。
There are many factors affecting fi scal revenue. In addition to the development level of tertiary industries and technical structure, changes in the number, structure and distribution of the population also have an important infl uence on fi scal revenue. As a basis, this paper analyzes the status and problems of the population development in Shandong Province after implementing the family planning and predicts the trend of population in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2030 by discrete population forecasting model. Combined with the results of population forecast, the paper does a simulation analysis of the infl uences on the future fi scal revenue from the changes of population size, population structure, urbanization level and the scale of population migration. The analysis results show the contribution of migrants to fi scal revenue of Shandong province plays a decisive role. In the future arrangement of expenditure, we should fully consider the demands of migrants and attract them by high quality public survices and perfect social welfare to contribute to the growth of economy and fi scal revenue in Shandong Province.
出处
《公共财政研究》
2015年第3期32-44,共13页
Public Finance Research Journal
关键词
人口变化
财政收入
影响
预测
population change
fi scal revenue
impact
forecast
