摘要
浪潮理论为理解现代恐怖主义的动态发展提供了一个解释框架和理论模型。该理论对跨度达百余年的恐怖主义现象进行了历时性和共时性考察,为人们深入理解其演变轨迹提供了学术积淀。该理论以四波浪潮最为典型。在其基础上,还形成了第五波浪潮的观点,可将其归纳为"千禧年主义""独狼主义""类国家主义"三种流派。前两种流派存在理论缺陷,类国家主义浪潮是当前恐怖主义的主要特征。同时,该浪潮也酝酿着恐怖主义代际转换的异动迹象。当前恐怖主义在意识形态、组织规模、斗争策略和攻击对象以及资金来源等方面表现出不同于之前浪潮的一些特点,可归为"第六波恐怖主义浪潮",其本质是全球恐怖主义驱动力的结构性变迁,是"逆全球主义浪潮"。应对该浪潮所带来的挑战,中国需要系统梳理自身反恐斗争演进轨迹,立足时代背景,前瞻全球化面临的挑战,塑造国际反恐怖斗争话语体系,推进人类命运共同体的系统构建。
The theory of global terrorism waves provides an explanation framework and theoretical model for understanding the dynamic development of modern terrorism.Within this framework,diachronic and synchronic research on terrorism over the past few centuries has accumulated thoughtful insights into a deep understanding of terrorism evolution trajectory.This theory is well-known for four waves’views,based on which,several recently-proposed fifth-wave views can be categorized into three schools,that is,'Millennialism','lone wolf'and'Semi-State'.The first two schools have theoretical flaws and the wave of'Semi-State'is identified as a unifying global zeitgeist.In this wave,abnormal signs that symbolize the next generation are also brewing.Current terrorisms have different representations from the previous waves in the terrorist ideology、organization、tactics、targets and founding.It can be called'the sixth wave',also a wave of'anti-globalization',the essence of which is that the driving forces behind global terrorism are undergoing structural changes.In response to the challenges brought by this wave,China should systematically analyze its evolutional history of counter-terrorism struggles,predict the potential challenges globalization is facing in the historical background and construct the international discourse system to build a community with a shared future for all humanity.
出处
《公安学研究》
2018年第2期107-121,124,共16页
Journal of Public Security Science
基金
2015年国家社会科学基金重大项目"当前我国反恐形势及对策研究"(15ZDA034)
2017年国家社会科学基金项目"习近平总书记关于反恐怖人民战争战略思想研究"(17CKS008)阶段性成果
