摘要
Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of China and giving a statistical model of time interdependence, the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned. We have inferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur. There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with M\-S7.0～7.5 will occur in 10～100a.
Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of China and giving a statistical model of time interdependence, the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned. We have inferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur. There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with M\-S7.0～7.5 will occur in 10～100a.
基金
theNationalScienceFoundation(49732 0 90 ),theJointEarthquakeScienceFoundation (197013)andtheScienceandTechnologyProjectoftheNinthFive yearPlan (2 6 ),NingxiaHuiAutonomousRegion ,China
