摘要
研究辽宁省建筑业发展与环境污染之间的关系,明确建筑业发展模式和转型升级方向,有助于实现辽宁省建筑业的高质量发展。选取2000—2020年辽宁省建筑业经济总产值及工业三废数据,测算建筑碳排放,并基于向量自回归(Vector Auto-Regressive, VAR)模型,分析建筑产业经济增长与各环境污染指标之间的长期演变关系,通过脉冲响应分析和方差分解两种方法实证分析辽宁省建筑业经济增长与环境污染的动态计量关系。结果表明:辽宁省建筑业经济增长与环境污染之间存在长期稳定的关系;建筑业经济增长对环境污染存在长期正向效应;环境污染的冲击对建筑业经济增长具有双重效应,工业二氧化硫排放量、烟粉尘排放量以及固体废物产生量对建筑业产值增长具有抑制作用,而二氧化碳排放量则会在短期内促进建筑业发展。
Investigating the relationship between the development of the construction industry and environmental pollution in Liaoning Province,as well as clarifying the development model and transformation and upgrading directions,is a key to realize the high-quality development of the construction industry.This study estimates construction-related carbon emissions using data from 2000 to 2020 on the total economic outputs of the construction industry and industrial“three wastes”emissions.Utilizing the Vector Auto-Regressive(VAR)model,the long-term evolution relationship between the economic growth of the construction industry and various environmental pollution indicators is analyzed.Furthermore,through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,this study calculates the dynamic econometric relationship between the economic growth in the construction industry and environmental pollution in Liaoning Province.The results reveal that there is a long-term stable relationship between the economic growth of the construction industry and environmental pollution.The economic growth of the construction industry has a long-term positive effect on environmental pollution.However,the impact of environmental pollution arouses a dual effect on the economic growth.Specifically,industrial sulfur dioxide emissions,soot emissions and solid waste generation inhibit the growth of the construction industry output value,while carbon dioxide emissions will stimulate the development of the construction industry in the short term.
作者
徐力
齐园
姜磊
李凝玉
XU Li;QI Yuan;JIANG Lei;LI Ningyu(School of Civil Engineering,North China University of Technology,Beijing 100144,China)
出处
《山东建筑大学学报》
2024年第6期87-93,130,共8页
Journal of Shandong Jianzhu University
基金
北京市社会科学基金项目(22JJB017)。
关键词
建筑产业
经济增长
环境污染
向量自回归模型
construction industry
economic growth
environmental pollution
Vector Auto-Regressive model
