摘要
气候变化叠加百年变局影响下,高频高损灾害冲击成为物流系统面临的重大挑战。为完整量化评价灾害冲击对区域物流系统的全过程韧性扰动,基于“2023·7”京津冀特大雨洪灾害案例,通过收集暴雨前后气象与物流运行大数据,对比识别分析灾害冲击前、中、后区域物流网络服务变化特征,提出考虑区域受灾时空异质性的物流韧性测度和损失评估方法,多角度构建冗余性、恢复性、稳健性、应变性和适应性等五位一体的“5R”物流韧性评价指标体系和区域物流整体韧性测度指数,多维表征受灾不同阶段的区域物流韧性能力。研究发现,本次特大雨洪灾害属于短时局部重大冲击,造成区域物流系统公路运费损失约300亿元,京津冀区域物流整体韧性指数为0.91,整体韧性能力较强,建议围绕平时稳健运行、灾前能力冗余、灾中抵抗冲击、灾后快速恢复等四个方面持续提升物流主动韧性水平。
Climate change and unprecedented global shifts have significantly increased the frequency and impact of disasters,posing substantial challenges to logistics systems.This study aims to comprehensively quantify and evaluate the resilience disturbances in regional logistics systems caused by disasters,focusing on the extreme rainstorm and flood disaster that occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in July 2023.By collecting meteorological data and logistics big data,we identify and analyze the changes in regional logistics network services across three phases:before,during,and after the disaster.We propose a method for measuring logistics resilience and assessing losses,taking into account the spatiotemporal heterogeneity within the affected region.We construct a fivedimensional'5R'logistics resilience evaluation index system and a regional logistics overall resilience measurement index.This'5R'index system includes redundancy,recovery,robustness,resourcefulness,and reconstructability,representing the resilience capacity at different disaster stages.The research finds that the extreme rainstorm and flood disaster caused significant short-term local impacts,resulting in an estimated loss of approximately 30 billion RMB in road freight for the regional logistics system.The overall logistics resilience index for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is 0.91,indicating a relative high level of resilience.The study recommends continuously enhancing proactive logistics resilience through robust routine operations,pre-disaster capacity redundancy,resistance to disaster impacts,and rapid post-disaster recovery.
出处
《交通与港航》
2024年第6期82-89,共8页
Communication & Shipping
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2022-5-YB-02)
关键词
区域物流
灾害冲击
韧性测度
京津冀
提升策略
Regional logistics
Disaster impact
Resilience measurement
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
Enhancement strategies
