摘要
目的构建模型预测上海市宝山区2024年的水痘发病趋势,为水痘早期预警和有效防控提供科学依据。方法利用宝山区2010—2022年报告水痘个案数据,运用R语言构建季节性自回归滑动平均模型,用2023年数据进行验证,最后用验证模型预测2024年水痘流行趋势。结果宝山区2010—2022年水痘年均发病率为69.67/10万,2020年起发病数和发病率有所降低。宝山区水痘月发病数据为平稳序列,具有明显季节性。ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12为最优拟合模型,残差经Ljung-Box检验为白噪声序列。2023年1—12月实际发病数均在预测值的95%可信区间内。预测显示宝山区2024年水痘发病数为762例,全年发病有2个高峰。结论ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12模型能较好拟合宝山区水痘的发病趋势,可用于宝山区水痘短期发病情况的预测。
Objective To establish a model to predict the trend of varicella incidence in Baoshan District,Shanghai in 2024,and to provide a scientific basis for early warning,effective prevention and control of varicella.Methods Utilizing the data of reported varicella cases in Baoshan District from 2010 to 2022,a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was constructed using the R programming language.Validate the model with data from 2023,and finally use the validated model to predict the trend of chickenpox epidemic in 2024.Results The average annual incidence rate of varicella in Baoshan District from 2010 to 2022 was 69.67/105.The number and incidence of cases both decreased from 2020 onwards.The time series of monthly varicella incidence data in Baoshan District was stable,and had obvious seasonality.ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12 was the best-fitted model.Ljung-Box test for the model residuals showed white noise.The actual values in January to December 2023 were all within the 95%confidence intervals of the predicted values.The prediction showed that the number of varicella cases in Baoshan District in 2024 was 762,and there would be two peaks of incidence throughout the year.Conclusions ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12 model can fit the trend of varicella incidence in Baoshan District better,and can be used to predict the short-term incidence of varicella in Baoshan District.
作者
朱江
孟杨
陈永君
朱奇
杨佳平
张迈月
李晓军
ZHU Jiang;MENG Yang;CHEN Yongjun;ZHU Qi;Yang Jiaping;ZHANG Maiyue;LI Xiaojun(Department of Immunization Programming,Baoshan District Center For Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 201901,China)
出处
《传染病信息》
2024年第6期541-545,共5页
Infectious Disease Information
基金
宝山区传染病流行病学重点学科项目(BSZK-2023-A20)。
