摘要
生育支持政策的落地见效对促进人口长期均衡发展具有战略性意义。本文通过构造包含企业和劳动者双方的一般均衡模型,刻画出企业负担的生育成本通过就业风险传递的作用路径,为企业劳动力需求缩减和劳动者休假利用不足的双重困境提供了理论解释。利用2016年生育假政策调整强度构建双重差分模型,本文提供了企业负担生育成本的经验证据。机制分析显示,企业负担成本的来源不仅包括工资补偿的直接成本,也包括岗位空缺引致的间接成本;劳动要素调整还伴随着企业生产总值下降和生产效率损失。数值模拟结果发现,在生育假充分落地的政策目标下,需政府补足的资金缺口与企业缴费金额的分担比例约为1∶2.7。本文不仅拓展了劳动保护政策成本分担的相关理论研究,还有助于更为全面地认识生育假政策的企业成本效应,对完善生育成本在政府—企业—家庭中的“三方分担”机制具有一定借鉴意义。
The effective implementation of pro-natalist policies is pivotal for achieving sustainable development and ensuring long-term population growth.Motivated by the observed underutilization of maternity leave,this paper develops a general equilibrium model to illustrate the pass-through of policy costs from firms to workers.The theoretical findings provide a coherent explanation for the dual challenges of dimin⁃ished labor demand and insufficient uptake of maternity leave.Utilizing the exogenous shock from the 2016 maternity leave policy reform,our empirical analysis shows that the incurred costs extend beyond direct expenses such as wage replacement and insurance contributions;they al⁃so encompass indirect costs related to employee training and turnover.Notably,these costs contribute to a reduction in firm productivity.Based on both theoretical and empirical analysis,we simulate a cost-sharing ratio of 1:2.7 between government and firms to achieve full imple⁃mentation of maternity leave policies.This paper not only expands the theoretical research on the cost-sharing of labor protection policies,but also contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the policy-related costs on firms.It provides insights for improving cost-sharing mechanisms of fertility costs among the government,firms,and families.
作者
叶菁菁
周骁遥
邹红
甘犁
Ye Jingjing;Zhou Xiaoyao;Zou Hong;Gan Li(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;Research Institute of Economics and Management,Southwest University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics,Southwest University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第12期79-94,共16页
Journal of Management World
基金
高等学校学科创新引智基地(B20084)
2024年度人的发展经济学研究中心(CCEHD)项目
四川省社科重大项目(SCJJ24ZD16)的资助
国家卫生健康委2024年人口高质量发展研究活动的支持。
