摘要
为探究中国商渔船碰撞事故的原因和预防策略,本文深入分析了近十年中国海事局官网公开发布的189起典型商渔船碰撞事故调查报告,提取出25个风险因素,并运用帕累托图法识别了事故双方的主要过失。基于这些风险因素,构建了事故树模型,并成功转化为贝叶斯网络模型,通过推理比较模型的前验和后验概率,揭示出商渔船碰撞事故的7个主要风险因素和主要致因链。结果表明,人为因素如瞭望不当、安全意识缺乏等占据重要地位,是防范商渔船碰撞事故的重要环节;瞭望不当→航行失误→船舶操纵失误是导致商渔船碰撞事故发生的主要致因链。本研究结果可作为预防商渔船碰撞事故的决策参考,对保障海上交通安全和推动海洋渔业可持续健康发展具有一定的实用价值。
Addressing the frequent occurrence of collisions between commercial vessels and fishing vessels in China,an in-depth analysis was conducted on 189 typical collision accident investigation reports publicly released on the official website of the China Maritime Safety Administration over the past ten years.From these reports,25 risk factors were extracted,and the Pareto chart method was applied to identify the primary faults of both parties involved in the accidents.An accident tree model was constructed and successfully transformed into a Bayesian network model based on these risk factors.Seven major risk factors and the primary cause-and-effect chains leading to collisions between commercial vessels and fishing vessels were revealed by comparing the prior and posterior probabilities of the model through reasoning,indicating that human factors including improper lookout and lack of safety awareness played a significant role,thus are the crucial aspects in preventing collisions between commercial vessels and fishing vessels.The primary cause-and-effect chain leading to such collisions described as improper lookout→navigation error→ship handling error.The findings can serve as a basis for decision-making in preventing collisions between commercial vessels and fishing vessels,which have practical value in ensuring maritime traffic safety and promoting sustainable and healthy development of ocean fisheries.
作者
王煜
王庸凯
任玉清
朱恩波
邓蔚林
WANG Yu;WANG Yongkai;REN Yuqing;ZHU Enbo;DENG Weilin(College of Navigation and Ship Engineering,Dalian Ocean University,Dalian 116023,China;College of Fisheries and Life Science,Dalian Ocean University,Dalian 116023,China)
出处
《大连海洋大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期864-873,共10页
Journal of Dalian Ocean University
基金
农业农村部渔业渔政管理局2023年委托项目(17230144)。
关键词
海上交通安全
商渔船碰撞事故
帕累托图法
事故树(FTA)
贝叶斯网络(BN)
致因链
maritime traffic safety
collisions between commercial vessel and fishing vessel
Pareto chart method
fault tree analysis(FTA)
Bayesian network(BN)
causal chain
