摘要
【目的】研究气候变化背景下朔州市气温的时空变化趋势与分布特征,为该地区适应气候变化行动等提供合理参考。【方法】利用朔州市6县(区、市)1972-2023年的气温资料,采用气候资料基本统计方法、线性倾向估计法、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall检验法以及Morlet小波分析法,对该地区气温的平均值和极端值进行了系统分析。【结果】①朔州市1972-2023年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均呈显著上升趋势,增温速率分别为0.40℃/10 a、0.39℃/10 a、0.53℃/10 a。夜间增温贡献最大,气温日较差不断缩小。四季平均气温也均呈显著上升趋势,春季和冬季增温最为明显。1991-2020年每隔10 a的平均气温较之前10 a均呈显著升温趋势,1991-2020年平均气温较1971-2000年、1981-2010年均呈显著升温趋势。年极端最高、最低气温都呈不显著升温,增温率为0.26℃/10 a和0.08℃/10 a。②朔州市年、四季、月气温均值均呈自西北向东南递增的空间分布特征,极端高温达40.4℃(2005年应县),极端低温为-37.4℃(1972年右玉县)。③朔州市极端最高气温重点出现在5月下旬到8月上旬,其中7月下旬出现频度最高,7月和6月出现最多,最早出现在4月下旬,最晚出现在9月上旬。极端最低气温重点出现在12月下旬到次年2月上旬,1月出现频度最高,最早出现在11月下旬,最晚出现在次年3月上旬。④朔州市气温的平均值和极端最高气温在1997年均发生了突变,1998年以后气温上升尤为显著。以1998年为界分为冷、暖2个阶段,1998年以前为冷期,1998年及以后为暖期。冷冬主要发生在20世纪90年代之前,暖冬主要发生在20世纪之后。⑤朔州市气温的平均值和极端值都存在2 a或4 a的显著振荡周期。【结论】研究结果可为灌溉排水、气象防灾减灾、气候变化应对、决策气象服务等提供科学支撑和数据参考。
【Objective】Shuozhou,located North of Shanxi province,has been significantly influenced by climate change.Since temperature is one of the most important factors influencing plant growth and evaporation of surface water and subsurface water,this paper analyses its spatiotemporal variation in this region.【Method】Using air temperature data measured from 1972 to 2023 at weather stations in six counties,districts,and cities in the region,we calculated both mean and extreme temperatures using statistical method,linear analysis,moving average methMann-Kendall test,and Morlet wavelet analysis.【Result】①From 1972 to 2023,the average temperature,annual mean maximum temperature,and annual mean minimum temperature exhibited significant upward trends,increasing at rates of 0.4℃/decade,0.39℃/decade and 0.53℃/decade,respectively.Nighttime temperature increases contributedmost to this warming trend;daily average temperature had been decreasing.The warming trend was most pronounced in spring and winter;temperature increases were more significant from 1991 to 2020 than in other years.②Extreme annual maximum and minimum temperatures did not show significant increases,with a change in 0.26℃/decade and 0.08℃/decade respectively.③Extreme maximum temperatures occurred mainly from late May to early August,peaking in late July.Extreme minimum temperatures typically appeared from late December to early February,with the highest frequency in January.④A marked temperature shift occurred in 1997,with a significant warming trend after 1998.Cold winters were more common before the 1990s,while warmer winters predominated after the 20th century.⑤Both mean and extreme temperatures in showed significant oscillations with periods of 2 to 4 years.【Conclusion】Our results could help improve irrigation and drainage management under the influence of climate change.
作者
李睿
李毓富
罗焕梅
LI Rui;LI Yufu;LUO Huanmei(Shuozhou Meteorological Bureau,Shuozhou 036002,China;Jincheng Meteorological Bureau,Jincheng 048026,China;Shuocheng Meteorological Bureau,Shuozhou 036002,China)
出处
《灌溉排水学报》
CAS
CSCD
2024年第12期84-96,共13页
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage
基金
山西省朔州市气象局重点项目(SZKQH202301)
山西省气象局面上项目(SXKMSQH20246708)。
关键词
朔州市
气温变化特征
线性倾向估计法
M-K突变分析
增温速率
Shuozhou City
temperature change characteristics
linear tendency estimation method
M-K mutation analysis
rate of warming
