摘要
地方政府债务在挤占企业融资空间的同时,也加剧了企业经营环境的不确定性,致使企业经营现金短缺的可能性增大。本文以2012—2022年A股上市公司为样本,探究了上市公司是否通过调整现金股利策略来应对。实证研究发现,地方政府债务显著降低了当地上市公司的现金股利发放倾向和发放强度,且股利发放倾向在非国有性质的公司中会更低。影响机制分析表明,地方政府债务加剧了企业的融资约束和盈利波动性,抑制了当地上市公司现金股利发放。进一步研究发现,地方债务较高地区的上市公司通过低股利策略保留了更多的现金储备。本文从政府债务角度丰富了公司现金股利影响因素的研究,不仅拓展了地方政府债务微观经济后果的文献,还为通过化解地方隐性债务风险来解决企业现金分红的后顾之忧,提振投资者信心和活跃资本市场提供了政策启示。
Cash dividend,as one of the fundamental aspects of corporate financial management,serves as an important means for investors to obtain returns.It is also a key channel for fostering long-term investment perspectives in the capital market,enhancing market vitality,and increasing its attractiveness.However,the rapid expansion of local government debt directly impacts corporate cash dividend policies.This occurs for two main reasons:first,the large-scale local government debt amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations,casting a long-term shadow over economic growth prospects and creating greater uncertainty in the business environment;second,local government debt crowds out corporate financing,resulting in a decline in companies' financing capacity.These factors significantly increase the volatility of corporate earnings and the risk of operational capital shortages.Using A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022 as a sample,this study examines whether listed companies adjust their cash dividend strategies in response to local government debt.The empirical analysis reveals that local government debt(specifically municipal investment bonds) significantly reduces both the propensity and intensity of cash dividend payouts by companies in the region,with this effect being more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises.Additionally,the study finds that following the reform of the local debt management system,the negative impact of municipal investment bonds on corporate dividend policies has weakened,indicating that the government's governance of local implicit debt has had some positive effects.Mechanism analysis indicates that local government debt suppresses corporate cash dividend payouts by exacerbating financing constraints and earnings volatility.To enhance the robustness of the results,this study uses per capita healthcare expenditure in public fiscal spending as an instrumental variable for local government debt in a robustness check.Additionally,a Difference-in-Differences(DID) model is constructed using the 2015 lo
作者
郭思永
GUO Si-yong(School of Accounting,Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance,Shanghai,201620,China)
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第10期126-146,共21页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“土地出让市场化对新时代制造业转型升级的影响研究”(23CJL010)。
关键词
地方政府债务
现金股利
城投债
融资约束
local government debt
cash dividend
municipal investment bond
financing constraint
