摘要
自2002年以来,正义与发展党在土耳其国内的选举优势逐渐形成并得以维持。选举政治是围绕再分配的博弈,以福利治理为核心的资源再分配成为解释正发党选举表现的重要变量。正发党执政后在国内推进福利改革,大力推动社会救助项目的蓬勃发展,扩大医疗卫生与公共住房领域的福利供给规模,同时着手重组社会保障体系。正发党的福利治理受到选举政治逻辑的驱动,实现了系统的再分配工具化,一定程度上成为该党巩固执政联盟的工具。正发党通过大规模福利输送,笼络以低收入群体为主的核心选民,同时以福利供给私有化吸纳伊斯兰经济精英,进而维持以物质利益与意识形态共识为基础的跨阶级执政联盟。福利治理为正发党执政地位的维持与行政权力的扩张提供了合法性支持,但2019年和2024年正发党选举优势的缩小表明福利治理的合法性效应有其限度,究其原因在于该党再分配能力下降与国内庇护主义滋生。鉴此,正发党只有继续以改善民生为着力点,努力摆脱选举机会主义的陷阱,才能获得更为稳定和持续的执政合法性。
Since 2002,the Justice and Development Party(AKP)has gradually developed and maintained electoral advantages in Türkiye.Electoral politics revolves around the game of redistribution,with welfare governance as a core element in explaining AKP’s electoral performance.To maintain and strengthen its power,AKP has pursued welfare reforms by vigorously promoting the growth of social assistance programs,expanding welfare provisions in healthcare and public housing,and restructuring the social security system.AKP’s welfare governance,driven by electoral politics,facilitated the systematic instrumentalization of redistribution,to a certain extent turning it into a crucial tool for solidifying its ruling coalition.AKP has employed extensive welfare distribution to attract its core voters primarily from low-income groups,while also utilizing welfare privatization to co-opt Islamic economic elites,thus maintaining a cross-class ruling coalition based on material interests and ideological consensus.Welfare governance provided legitimacy for AKP’s electoral advantage and the expansion of its executive power.However,the recent narrowing of AKP’s electoral advantage indicates that the legitimacy effect of welfare governance is gradually weakening.The reasons for this include the party’s diminishing redistributive capacity and the widespread presence of clientelism.Given this double-edged effect,AKP should focus on improving citizens’livelihoods,getting rid of the trap of electoral opportunism in order to attain long-term ruling legitimacy.
作者
胡舒蕾
张小劲
Hu Shulei;Zhang Xiaojin
出处
《西亚非洲》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第6期132-154,160,共24页
West Asia and Africa
基金
国家留学基金委“国际区域问题研究及外语高层次人才培养项目”(202206210069)资助。
关键词
中东政治
选举政治
土耳其
正义与发展党
福利治理再分配工具化
Middle East politics
electoral politics
Türkiye
Justice and Development Party
welfare governance
instrumentalization of redistribution
