摘要
全球气候变暖导致干旱事件频发,干旱已经严重威胁农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统的健康发展。与此同时,受超载过牧干扰草原生态环境日益恶化,农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统面临巨大压力。为维持农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统的可持续发展,国务院于2002年、2012年和2016年相继实行草原禁牧政策、第一轮草原生态奖补政策和第二轮草原生态奖补政策。然而,政策实施以来违规放牧现象长期存在,农户违规放牧使草原生态系统受到影响,导致禁牧政策和草原生态奖补政策未能有效发挥作用,农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统依然面临系统崩溃风险。基于此,以草场沙化严重区域宁夏盐池县为例,基于多主体建模与仿真方法(Agent-based model,ABM)模拟农户放牧行为决策过程,分析不同干旱程度下,执法力度和邻里效应等社会规范对农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统的影响机制。为更合理的展示和模拟农牧交错区实际,本文结合2021年盐池县问卷调研数据、社会经济统计数据、部分文献数据以及草原监测数据等,对ABM模型中的参数进行设定,构建了用于模拟干旱干扰下农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统模型。结果显示:(1)干旱影响下农户收入呈先上升后下降的趋势,且农户收入最终低于初始状态。同时,随干旱概率的增加,草地生态系统退化趋势加剧。(2)总体而言,当草场面临干旱等自然灾害影响时,执法力度的增加并未有效保证社会⁃生态系统健康发展。具体表现为,当干旱来临时随执法力度的增加,农户收入能够维持在稳定的区间内,执法力度对农户收入产生的影响较小。并且,在不同干旱程度下执法力度的增强未能有效制止违规放牧行为,导致草地生态系统继续退化。(3)强邻里效应能够很大程度上影响农户行为决策,进而对农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统产生影响。当农户行为决策受周围农户影响�
Global warming has led to frequent droughts,which have become a serious threat to the sustainabledevelopment of social⁃ecological systems in the agro⁃pastoral ecotone.At the same time,the grassland ecological environment is deteriorating as a result of overloading and overgrazing,and the social⁃ecological systems in the agro⁃pastoral ecotone are under significant stress.In order to maintain the sustainable development of the social⁃ecological systems in the agro⁃pastoral ecotone,the State Council implemented the grassland grazing ban policy,the first round of grassland ecological subsidy policy,and the second round of grassland ecological subsidy policy in 2002,2012,and 2016,respectively.However,since the implementation of the policy,the phenomenon of illegal grazing has existed for a long time,and the grassland ecosystem has been affected by illegal grazing by farmers,which has led to the failure of the forbidden grazing policy and the grassland ecological reward and subsidy policy to play an effective role,and the social⁃ecological systems in the agro⁃pastoral ecotone are still facing the risk of system collapse.Based on this,this paper takes Yanchi County of Ningxia,a serious area of grassland desertification,as an example,simulates the decision⁃making process of farmers′grazing behavior based on ABM(Agent⁃based model),and analyzes the influence mechanism of social norms,such as law enforcement and neighborhood effect,on the social⁃ecological system in the agro⁃pastoral ecotone under different drought levels.To demonstrate and simulate the actuality of the agro⁃pastoral ecotone,this paper combines the questionnaire research data,social⁃economic statistical data,part of the literature data,and grassland monitoring data of Yanchi County in 2021,sets the parameters in the ABM model,and constructs the social⁃ecological system model used to simulate the agro⁃pastoral ecotone under the disturbance of drought.The results show that(1)The income of farmers under the influence of drough
作者
侯彩霞
尹小明
王萌萌
HOU Caixia;YIN Xiaoming;WANG Mengmeng(School of Management,Xi′an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi′an 710055,China;Laboratory of Neuromanagement in Engineering,Xi′an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi′an 710055,China)
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第22期10031-10043,共13页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52270189)
陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(21JK0213)。
关键词
农牧交错区社会⁃生态系统
干旱
违规放牧
执法力度
邻里效应
Social⁃ecological systems in agro⁃pastoral ecotone
drought
illegal grazing
enforcement efforts
neighborhood effect
