国际供给冲击与关键设备进口波动:进口供应多元化的作用

International Supply Shocks and Fluctuations in Imports of Critical Equipment:The Role of Import Supply Diversification

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摘要保障关键设备产品的国际供给稳定,已然成为中国实现产业链供应链安全的重要一环。本文考察了国际供给冲击风险下进口供应多元化对关键设备进口波动的影响,发现国际供给紧缩冲击会显著加剧关键设备进口波动,而关键设备进口供应多元化有助于抵御负向供给冲击,平抑企业的进口波动。其中,风险分散机制和成本对冲机制是两条潜在的影响机制。进一步分析发现,简单的进口来源市场多样化并不一定能够有效降低关键设备进口波动,进口来源市场之间的风险联动性以及中国与进口来源市场之间的双边政治关系会显著影响关键设备进口供应多元化策略“稳供给”效应的发挥。此外,相较于中低技术关键设备,高技术关键设备的生产壁垒较高,导致进口企业拓宽多元化供应渠道的空间有限,因而在遭遇供给冲击时,企业难以通过多元化策略有效分散供应中断风险。本研究能够为企业选择进口来源市场和通过进口多元化战略实现关键设备“稳供给”提供有益参考。 Ensuring the stability of international supply for critical equipment products has become a crucial aspect of achieving industrial and supply chain security in China.This paper examines the impact of diversified import supply on the fluctuations in the import of critical equipment under the backdrop of international supply shocks.We find that tightening international supply significantly exacerbates fluctuations in critical equipment imports,while diversifying import sources helps mitigate negative supply shocks and stabilize these fluctuations for enterprises.Risk diversification mechanisms and cost-hedging mechanisms are identified as two potential influencing factors.Further analysis reveals that simply diversifying import source markets may not effectively reduce fluctuations in the import of critical equipment.The interconnectedness of risk between import source markets and bilateral political relationships between China and these markets significantly affect the effectiveness of diversification strategies in stabilizing supply.Additionally,hightech critical equipment has higher production barriers compared to medium and low-tech equipment,limiting importers'ability to diversify supply channels.Consequently,enterprises find it harder to mitigate supply disruption risks through diversification when faced with supply shocks.This study provides valuable guidance for enterprises on selecting import source markets and utilizing import diversification strategies to ensure a stable supply of critical equipment.

作者桑百川王萱 SANG Baichuan;WANG Xuan

机构地区对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院对外经济贸易大学国际商务战略研究院

出处《国际贸易问题》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第10期19-35,共17页 Journal of International Trade

基金国家社会科学基金哲学社会科学领军人才项目“全球经济治理体系变革的中国方案研究”(22VRC162) 对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金一般项目“国际供给冲击与关键设备进口波动:进口供应多元化的作用”(202413)。

关键词国际供给冲击关键设备进口波动进口供应多元化风险联动性双边政治关系 International Supply Shocks Fluctuations in Imports of Critical Equipment Import Supply Diversification Interconnectedness of Risk Bilateral Political Relationships

分类号 F74 [经济管理—国际贸易]