摘要
长期护理保险制度的产业和就业效应是学术与政策领域的热点议题。本文建立理论框架,发现长期护理保险制度对养老护理企业进入和就业具有积极效应。进一步基于中国工商注册企业数据,通过青岛市长期护理保险制度试点这一准自然实验,使用合成双重差分法进行效应检验。结果发现,长期护理保险制度的实施使当地的养老护理企业进入数平均每年显著增加104家,尤其在2016年之后增速更加明显。构建不同合成对照组发现结果稳健。对进入企业的特征分析表明,长期护理保险制度对注册为工商企业、提供机构养老服务、提供高质量服务项目以及中等经营规模的养老护理企业的激励作用更强。此外,在长期护理保险运行的七年时间内,青岛市养老护理行业就业人数显著增加了累计1.3万。保守的成本—效益分析结果表明,实施长期护理保险制度的年人均收益为49217.7元,是其经济成本的2.94倍。最后,使用2016年和2020年长期护理保险制度试点地区进行外部有效性检验,发现不同长护险试点城市的政策效果存在较大差异。本文结论的政策启示在于,要把产业和就业效应作为认识、评估、推广长期护理保险制度的重要政策前提,同时通过提升政策协同、在全国统一的长期护理保险制度设计框架上给予地方一定的个性化空间等措施充分释放其产业和就业效应。
The industrial and employment effects of long-term care insurance system have always been a hot topic in academic and policy fields,but such academic research in China is still very inadequate.This paper establishes a theoretical framework,which demonstrates that the long-term care insurance system has a positive effect on the entry of old-age care enterprises and employment.Furthermore,based on the registration data of China industrial and commercial enterprises,and through the quasi-natural experiment of the long-term care insurance system in Qingdao,the effect is tested by Synthetic DID.The results show that the implementation of the long-term care insurance system has significantly increased the number of local old-age care enterprises by 104 per year,and the growth rate is higher after 2016.The results remain stable by constructing different synthetic control groups.The analysis of the characteristics of entering enterprises shows that the old-age care enterprises registered as industrial and commercial enterprises,providing institutional old-age care services of highquality and being medium-sized,are more motivated by the long-term care insurance system.In addition,during the seven years of the operation of the long-term care insurance,the number of employees in the aged-care industry in Qingdao has significantly increased by 13,000.The conservative cost-benefit analysis shows that the annual per capita income during these years of operation is 49,217.7 yuan,which is 2.94 times of its economic cost.Finally,making the external validity testing of the long-term care insurance system in 2016 and 2020 among different pilot regions,we find that there are significant differences in the policy effects of different pilot cities of long-term care insurance.The policy enlightenment of the conclusion of this paper lies in that the industrial and employment effects should be regarded as an important policy premise for understanding,evaluating and popularizing the long-term care insurance system,and at the same time,the
作者
胡宏伟
史健群
HU Hong-wei;SHI Jian-qun
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第10期111-127,共17页
Insurance Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“社区整合照护对我国老年失能轨迹的影响效应与治理体系研究”(22BRK045)。
