摘要
随着中国不断推进高水平金融开放,跨境资本的流动规模和波动性显著提升,需要加快完善跨境资本流动的宏观审慎监管体系。文章构建包含跨境资本影响国内经济的贸易和金融渠道之开放型动态随机一般均衡框架,分析遭遇跨境资本流动冲击时,不同汇率制度下“双支柱”调控的政策效果及管理浮动汇率制度下的政策效应。研究发现:首先,相对于单一使用货币政策,完全浮动和管理浮动汇率制下,宏观审慎政策与货币政策搭配能大浮度降低经济波动和实现金融稳定,而固定汇率制度下的政策效果较差。其次,管理浮动汇率制度下“双支柱”调控的社会福利损失最小,固定汇率制度下的社会福利损失最大;随着汇率弹性增强,“双支柱”调控效果呈现先增后减的特征。再次,管理浮动汇率制下的宏观审慎政策和货币政策组合能大幅提升经济与金融系统稳定性,并且此时宏观审慎政策不会削弱货币政策有效性。最后,当前中国的汇率弹性仍需进一步提升,并需增强货币政策对通胀缺口的调控力度,以实现“双支柱”协调的最佳效果。文章研究结论表明,面对跨境资本流动风险,中国应实施宏观审慎政策并选择更为弹性的管理浮动汇率制,同时货币政策应坚持以我为主,兼顾内外均衡。
With the continuous promotion of high-level financial opening-up in China,the scale and volatility of cross-border capital flows have increased significantly,necessitating the acceleration of the macro-prudential supervision system for cross-border capital flows.From the perspective of the exchange rate system,this paper constructs an open dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework that includes the trade and financial channels through which cross-border capital affects the domestic economy.It analyzes the policy effects of"dual pillar"regulation under different exchange rate systems,and explores the effectiveness of"dual pillar"policy under both the managed floating exchange rate system.Firstly,in the face of cross-border capital shocks,the"double pillar"policy within the fully floating and managed range exchange rate system can significantly reduce economic fluctuations,while the"double pillar"policy under the fixed exchange rate system has a poor effect.Secondly,it is found that the social welfare loss under the"two-pillar"regulation under the managed range exchange rate system is the smallest,while the social welfare loss under the fixed exchange rate system is the largest.With the increase in exchange rate elasticity,the effect of"double pillar"regulation is characterized by an initial increase followed by a decrease.Thirdly,the"two-pillar"policy under the managed floating exchange rate system can greatly improve the stability of the economic and financial system,and macro-prudential policies will not diminish the effectiveness of monetary policy.However,at present,China′s exchange rate elasticity still needs to be further improved,and the monetary policy must strengthen its regulation of the inflation gap to achieve the optimal effect of the"two-pillar"coordination.The conclusion shows that in the face of cross-border capital disturbances,we should implement macro-prudential policies and adopt a more flexible managed floating exchange rate system.At the same time,it is crucial to maintain a self-cen
作者
胡小文
沈绍伟
HU Xiaowen;SHEN Shaowei
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第10期34-48,M0002,M0003,共17页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“金融开放进程中的短期跨境资本流动风险及‘双支柱’调控研究”(项目编号:23BJY121)。
