摘要
[目的]为探究气候变化和人类活动对基流变化的影响。[方法]选择黄土高原地区的4个典型流域无定河、窟野河、延河和秃尾河作为研究对象。基于1965-2017年无定河、窟野河和延河及1983-2017年秃尾河逐日流量和多站点气象资料,分析9种基流分割方法的适用性和基流变化特征。基于Budyko理论,采用弹性系数法,量化气候变化和人类活动对基流变化的贡献率。[结果]数字滤波法F4分割结果在稳定性、离散程度和误差方面表现较好,在黄土高原地区典型流域中最为适用。4个流域年基流深、年径流深和年基流指数的变化趋势有较高的一致性,无定河、窟野河、延河和秃尾河流域多年平均基流指数BFI分别为0.64,0.42,0.28和0.49,年基流深和年径流深均呈显著减小趋势(p<0.01),而年基流指数均为增加趋势。降水、潜在蒸散发和人类活动对黄土高原地区典型流域基流变化贡献率范围分别是-56.72%~33.92%,-0.81%~55.16%和10.92%~104.37%。[结论]人类活动是影响黄土高原地区基流演变的主要因素,研究结果为黄土高原地区水资源综合管理提供理论支持。
[Objective]This study examines the impact of climate change and human activities on baseflow variability across four representative watersheds within the Loess Plateau:the Wuding River,Kuye River,Yan River,and Tutai River.[Methods]Utilizing daily flow data from 1965 to 2017 for the Wuding,Kuye,and Yan rivers,and from 1983 to 2017 for the Tutai River,alongside multi-site meteorological data,we evaluated the applicability of nine baseflow separation methods and characterized baseflow variations.Contributions of climate change and human activities to baseflow changes were quantified using the elasticity coefficient method within the Budyko framework.[Results]The F4 digital filtering method exhibited superior performance in terms of stability,dispersion,and error metrics,making it the most suitable method for the typical watersheds of the Loess Plateau.Trends in annual baseflow depth,annual runoff depth,and annual baseflow index were consistent across the four watersheds,with multi-year average baseflow indices(BFI)of 0.64,0.42,0.28,and 0.49,respectively.Significant decreasing trends(p<0.01)were observed in both annual baseflow depth and runoff depth,while the annual baseflow index showed increasing trends.The contributions of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,and human activities to the changes in baseflow ranged from-56.72%to 33.92%,-0.81%to 55.16%,and 10.92%to 104.37%,respectively.[Conclusion]The findings underscore that human activities are the principal drivers influencing baseflow evolution in the Loess Plateau area,offering theoretical support for integrated water resource management in the region.
作者
张纪元
于坤霞
李占斌
李鹏
刘永刚
莫淑红
赵宾华
杨建宏
贾路
李雪
ZHANG Jiyuan;YU Kunxia;LI Zhanbin;LI Peng;LIU Yonggang;MO Shuhong;ZHAO Binhua;YANG Jianhong;JIA Lu;LI Xue(State Key Laboratory of Ecological Water Resour in Northwest Arid Zone,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;Key Laboratory of National Forestry Administration on Ecological Hydrology and Disaster Prevention in Arid Regions,Xi’an 710048,China;Shaanxi Provincial Water Resources and River Reservoir Dispatching Center,Xi’an 710004,China;Key Laboratory of Hydrologic-cycle and Hydrodynamic System of Ministry of Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《水土保持学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期82-91,101,共11页
Journal of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
陕西省重点研发计划项目(2023-ZDLSF-60)
国家自然科学基金项目(52079104)
陕西省青年科技新星项目(2024ZC-KJXX-058)。
