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城市密集建成区暴雨洪水管理模型参数敏感性分析

Parameter sensitivity analysis of storm water management model for densely built-up urban areas
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摘要 为实现吴忠市暴雨洪水管理模型(storm water management model,SWMM)的高效率定,分别采用修正的莫里斯(Morris)法和互信息法,分析了洪峰流量和径流系数的模拟结果对SWMM的7个相关产流参数的局部和全局敏感性.2种方法均识别出不透水面-曼宁系数(IMP-N)和不透水区洼地蓄水深度(IMP-DS)为SWMM的主要敏感参数.洪峰流量对IMP-N和IMP-DS最敏感,径流系数对IMP-DS最敏感;参数的敏感性随降雨强度的增大先增大后减小,洪峰流量对IMP-DS和IMP-N的敏感性分别在3和10 a的降雨重现期达到最大值,径流系数对IMP-DS和IMP-N的敏感性分别在2和3 a的降雨重现期达最大值;敏感参数间的协同作用随降雨强度增大而减弱.结果表明,吴忠市中心城区的易涝区应优先考虑增加地表粗糙度与洼地蓄水深度.本成果可为以高不透水率为特征的其他城市密集建成区的削峰减排提供参考. To achieve efficient calibration of the storm water management model(SWMM)for Wuzhong city,modified Morris screening method and mutual information method are used to analyze the local and global sensitivity of simulated peak flow and runoff coefficient to 7 parameters of the model.Both methods identified IMP-N and IMPDS as the two major sensitive parameters of SWMM.Peak flow is the most sensitive to IMP-N and IMP-DS,runoff coefficient is th most sensitive to IMP-DS.The sensitivity of the parameters increases first and then decreases with increasing rainfall intensity.Sensitivity of peak flow to IMP-N and IMP-DS reaches a maximum at about 10 and 3 a,respectively.Sensitivity of runoff coefficient to IMP-N and IMP-DS reaches maximum at about 3 and 2 a,respectively.Synergistic effects between parameters decrease with increasing rain intensity.These data suggest that surface roughness be increased,water storage depth be larger in areas prone to flooding in Wuzhong city.This work will provide some reference for peak flow and drainage reduction in densely built-up urban areas characterized with high impermeability.
作者 黄亦轩 徐宗学 廖如婷 张自立 陈浩 HUANG Yixuan;XU Zongxue;LIAO Ruting;ZHANG Zili;CHEN Hao(College of Water Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,Beijing,China;Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Bureau of Wuzhong City,Wuzhong,Ningxia,China)
出处 《北京师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期698-706,共9页 Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)
基金 国家自然科学基金资助项目(52239003,52079005)。
关键词 暴雨洪水管理模型 城市洪涝 敏感性分析 莫里斯(Morris)法 互信息法 storm water management model urban flooding sensitivity analysis Morris method mutual information method
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