摘要
以广州从化和增城地区的荔枝作为保险标的物,结合荔枝全生育期的气象灾害,设计荔枝气象指数保险产品,并进行保险赔付率验证。基于荔枝产量数据和历史气象资料,构建荔枝气象指数,拟合气象指数的分布情况,厘定触发赔付的不同气象指数的保险纯费率和单位面积保险金额,设置不同等级的赔付金额。研究表明,从化荔枝花期降水指数R1,增城荔枝抽穗期低温指数Tmin、果熟期降水指数R100d是导致荔枝减产的关键气象指数。当从化荔枝花期累积降水量达350 mm,增城荔枝抽穗期最低气温为3.3℃、果熟期日雨量≥100 mm的累积天数为2 d时触发理赔。对应气象指数不同等级的保费金额分别在448~2582元/hm^(2)、522~2567元/hm^(2)、1403~3284元/hm^(2)之间,不同气象指数各等级的赔付比例分别在7%~10%、7%~10%、10%~12%之间,两区10年、20年和30年3个时间尺度的平均赔付率分别为77.0%、69.6%和63.7%,与保险公司赔付率65%~75%的要求较为一致。研发的荔枝气象指数保险产品可为广州新一轮政策性农业保险提供参考,为荔枝果农分散转移气象灾害风险提供技术支持。
This study uses litchi from Conghua and Zengcheng regions in Guangzhou as insurance targets,and combines the meteorological disasters throughout the entire growth period of litchi to design litchi meteorological index insurance products and verify insurance payout rates.Based on the litchi yield data and historical meteorological data,litchi yield reduction rate models are structured.Based on the correlation between meteorological factors and yield reduction rate,key meteorological indicators that affect litchi yield are screened.Further,the distribution of litchi meteorological index is fitted,the insurance pure premium rate and the insurance amount per unit area for different meteorological index grades which trigger compensation are determined.The meteorological index is set to 2 to 4 levels;different weather index levels of the amount of compensation are determined;and the rationality of compensation rates at different time scales is verified.In this study,the time scale of litchi yield and planting area data is from^(2)001 to 2020,while the time scale of meteorological data is from 1959 to 2020.The results show that the precipitation index at the flowering stage of litchi in Conghua district,the low-temperature index at the heading stage,and the precipitation index at the ripening stage of litchi in Zengcheng district are the key meteorological indicators that lead to the reduction of litchi yield in the two regions mentioned above,respectively.When the cumulative precipitation in Conghua district reaches 350 mm at the flowering stage of litchi,the minimum temperature is 3.3℃at the heading stage of litchi,and the cumulative daily rainfall of≥100 mm at the ripening stage of litchi lasts 2 days in Zengcheng district,a claim is triggered.The premium amounts corresponding to different levels of three meteorological indices are between 448-2582 yuan/hm^(2),522-2567 yuan/hm^(2),1403-3284 yuan/hm^(2),respectively.The compensation ratios for different meteorological indices and levels are between 7%-10%,7%-10%,a
作者
彭晓丹
欧善国
蓝静
胡磊
PENG Xiaodan;OU Shanguo;LAN Jing;HU lei(Guangzhou Climate and Agrometeorology Centre,Guangzhou 511430;China United Property Insurance Co.,Ltd..Guangzhou Center branch,Guangzhou 511430)
出处
《气象科技》
2024年第5期753-761,共9页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
广州市气象局都市气候与农业气象创新团队
广州市气象学会科研项目(M202219)资助。
关键词
广州
荔枝
气象指数保险
Guangzhou
litchi
meteorological index insurance product
