摘要
基于1961—2021年塔里木盆地39个气象站逐日降水资料,选取世界气象组织(WMO)推荐的10个极端降水指数,采用常规统计方法分析塔里木盆地极端降水指数的时空变化特征。结果表明:塔里木盆地强降水量、极强降水量、1 d最大降水量、5 d最大降水量、中雨日数、大雨日数、持续湿期总体呈自西北山脉向盆地中东部减少的空间分布;暴雨日数指数局地性强,50 mm以上极端暴雨主要出现在盆地北缘和南缘。塔里木盆地极端降水指数呈现出一定的极端化和湿润化趋势,盆地西部极端指数变率大于东部,呈现“西快东慢”的区域分布。极端指数存在明显的年际波动和年代振荡,20世纪80—90年代各极端降水指数均经历“少—多”的变化(持续干期相反),之后振荡增加表现出一定的不稳定性。盆地极端降水指数在20世纪80年代中期经历了一次较明显的转折性变化,除暴雨日数外的其余指数均发生了显著突变;各极端降水指数也出现较明显的周期变化,除5 d最大降水量、持续湿期指数外,其余指数均存在较稳定的准3 a、6 a的高频振荡周期。
Based on the daily precipitation data from 39 meteorological stations in the Tarim Basin in China from 1961 to 2021 and 10 extreme precipitation indexes recommended by the World Meteorological Organization,the study investigate the variation characteristics of the indexes by using some statistical methods,including linear trend estimation,Mann-Kendall test,accumulative anomaly,sliding t-test,signal-to-noise ratio test and Morlet wavelet analysis.The results show that the heavy precipitation,extreme precipitation,maximum 1-day precipitation amount,maximum 5-day precipitation amount,moderate rain days,heavy rain days and consecutive wet days,all decrease from the northwestern mountainous areas to the central-eastern basin.The heavy precipitation days index is highly localized,and the extreme heavy preciptiation over 50 mm is mainly concentrated at the plain stations in the central-eastern parts of the basin.Over the past 61 years,extreme precipitation events in the Tarim Basin have shown an obvious"extreme"and"humidification"trend.The indexes such as heavy precipitation,extreme precipitation,precipitation intensity,maximum 1-day precipitation amount,moderate rain days,heavy rain days and consecutive dry days,have demonstrated different degrees of increase at most stations,while the consecutive wet days has shown a decreasing trend.There are some regional differences in the variation rate of extreme precipitation indexes,with a"fast in the west and slow in the east"pattern.The extreme precipitation indexes exhibit obvious interannual fluctuations and interdecadal oscillations.The interannual anomalies of each extreme precipitation indexes experience a"from less to more"variation from the 1980s to the 1990s(they are opposite in the consecutive dry period).After that,the oscillation has increased and shows a certain degree of unstability.In terms of mutation and periodic characteristics,the extreme precipitation events in the basin experienc an obvious turning point in the mid-1980s,with notable mutation observed in a
作者
努尔比亚·吐尼牙孜
姚俊强
阿依努尔·买买提吐逊
米日古丽·米吉提
黄艳
Nurbiye Tunyaz;YAO Junqian;Aynur Mamattusun;Mihrigul Mijit;HUANG Yan(Kashgar Meteorological Bureau,Kashgar 844000,China;Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Hotan Meteorological Bureau,Hotan 848000,China)
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2024年第5期25-34,共10页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
自治区科技厅自然科学基金项目(2021D01A15)
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金重点项目(2022D01D86)
自治区重点研发任务专项(2022B03021-1)
中亚大气科学研究基金项目(CASS201725)。
关键词
塔里木盆地
极端降水
时空变化
大气环流
Tarim Basin
extreme precipitation
spatial and temporal variation
general atmospheric circulation
