摘要
通过将蜜柚受冻温度指标与冻害防御措施气象指标相结合的策略,构建了蜜柚冻害预警气象等级指标,进而应用CMA-GD模式(华南区域中尺度数值模式)的江西省智能网格预报区域2 m气温逐小时预报产品,对2020/2021年度越冬期江西蜜柚冻害进行预警试验,分析基于CMA-GD模式开展逐小时蜜柚冻害预警的可行性。结果表明,构建的蜜柚越冬期冻害气象等级指标能反映蜜柚实际受冻症状和冻害程度;基于CMA-GD模式的蜜柚冻害等级预警产品,能提前3 d比较准确地捕捉到冻害发生发展的变化过程,可为启动蜜柚冻害预警、提前掌握蜜柚冻害程度较重时间节点和蜜柚冻害发生发展阶段提供科技支撑。
Meteorological grade index of pomelo freezing damage early warning was built by combining the freezing temperature index and meteorological index of freezing prevention measures.Then early warning experiment on the freezing damage of Jiangxi honey pomelo during the overwintering period in 2021 was carried out to analyze the feasibility of conducting hourly freezing damage warning of honey pomelo based on CMA-GD model by application of the intelligent grid forecasting product of CMA-GD model in Jiangxi Province to predict the hourly temperature of 2 m in the area.The results showed that the established meteorological level indicators for freezing damage of honey pomelo were consistent with the actual symptoms and degree of freezing damage of honey pomelo.The CMA-GD model based warning product for the freezing damage level of honey pomelo could accurately capture the changes in the occurrence and development of freezing damage 3 days in advance,and could provide technological support for initiating the warning of honey pomelo freezing damage,understanding the severity of honey pomelo freezing damage and the stage of occurrence and development of honey pomelo freezing damage in advance.
作者
杨爱萍
李翔翔
张瑛
吴茵
李健
YANG Aiping;LI Xiangxiang;ZHANG Ying;WU Yin;LI Jian(Jiangxi Agro-meteorological center,Nanchang,Jiangxi,330096,China;Jiangxi Agricultural Technology Promotion Center,Nanchang,Jiangxi,330096,China;Xinyu Meteorological Bureau,Xinyu,Jiangxi,338000,China)
出处
《中国南方果树》
北大核心
2024年第5期1-10,共10页
South China Fruits
基金
江西省重点研发计划项目(20243BBH81009)
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J057)
中国气象局广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室开放基金项目(201801)
江西省防灾减灾工程技术研究中心专项(JX2023Z01)
江西省气象科技项目(JMTF20190108)资助。
