摘要
土地利用变化是生物多样性丧失的直接驱动因素之一。通过发展情景来模拟未来土地利用格局和生物多样性变化,可以指导生物多样性保护目标和政策的制定,成为决策的有力工具。本研究以浙江省陆域范围为研究区域,基于《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》的空间规划、退化生态系统恢复、保护地3个行动目标,设定浙江省生物多样性保护目标和政策,参照“自然未来框架”的情景设计思路,制定了基线情景、美丽浙江情景和智慧浙江情景3套方案,其中基线情景强调按照现有发展趋势自然变化,美丽浙江情景强调保护自然生态系统的原真性和完整性,智慧浙江情景强调利用高科技提升大自然对人类良好生活质量的有益贡献。利用FLUS-Biodiversity模型模拟浙江省2035年、2050年土地利用格局与平均物种丰度指数(Mean Species Abundance,MSA)分布及变化,实现目标、政策与情景模拟的有机结合。结果表明:①2020年浙江省MSA指数为0.547,基线情景下城镇建设用地增长超过了城镇开发边界,挤占了生态空间和农田空间,导致生物多样性下降,2050年MSA指数降至0.535;而美丽浙江情景和智慧浙江情景扭转了这一下降趋势,2050年MSA指数分别增至0.624、0.573,生物多样性增加。②美丽浙江情景下,2035年生态保护红线面积占比达27.14%,新增范围主要分布在现有生态保护红线的外缘,有效保护了生物多样性。③美丽浙江情景和智慧浙江情景下,中度及以上干扰林地、中度及以上干扰湿地、干扰草地的受干扰程度将会变低,生物多样性因而提高。研究显示,权衡土地利用变化与生物多样性保护、实施生物多样性保护政策措施以及提升生物多样性治理能力和治理水平,可以有效提高生物多样性,实现生物多样性保护目标。
Land use change is one of the direct drivers of biodiversity loss.Modeling land use patterns and biodiversity change in the future through the development of scenarios can guide the formulation of biodiversity conservation targets and policies and become a powerful tool for decision-making.In this study,we took the terrestrial area of Zhejiang Province as the study area.Based on the three actionoriented targets of spatial planning,restoration of degraded ecosystems,and protected areas in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework,we set biodiversity conservation targets and policies for Zhejiang and formulated three scenarios of the Baseline Scenario,the Beautiful Zhejiang Scenario,and the Intelligent Zhejiang Scenario.Among these scenarios,the Baseline Scenario emphasized natural changes following current development trends,the Beautiful Zhejiang Scenario emphasized the conservation of the originality and integrity of natural ecosystems,and the Intelligent Zhejiang Scenario emphasized the enhancement of nature′s beneficial contributions to human beings′quality of life through the high technologies.The FLUS-Biodiversity model was utilized to simulate the distribution and changes of the land use pattern and Mean Species Abundance(MSA)in Zhejiang Province in 2035 and 2050.This study achieved an organic integration of targets,policies,and scenario simulations.The results showed that:(1)The MSA index in Zhejiang Province was 0.547 in 2020,and the growth of urban construction land exceeded the urban development boundary in the Baseline Scenario,occupying the ecological preservation zones and farmlands and causing the decline of biodiversity,and the MSA index decreased to 0.535 in 2050.However,this trend is reversed in the Beautiful Zhejiang Scenario and Intelligent Zhejiang Scenario,with the MSA index increasing to 0.624 and 0.573 in 2050,respectively,as well as improved biodiversity.(2)Under the Beautiful Zhejiang Scenario,the ecological red line area accounts for 27.14% in 2035,and the newly added areas
作者
朱晓泾
于丹丹
乐志芳
曹铭昌
ZHU Xiaojing;YU Dandan;LE Zhifang;CAO Mingchang(Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Nanjing 210042,China)
出处
《环境科学研究》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第10期2225-2236,共12页
Research of Environmental Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(No.2018YFC0507202)。
