摘要
目的:探讨急性主动脉夹层患者急诊救治期间发生夹层破裂死亡的危险因素,构建风险预测模型并对其进行验证,检验其预测效能。方法:选取2018年1月至2021年8月中国医学科学院阜外医院急诊室收治的符合标准的301例急性主动脉夹层患者(模型组),根据患者是否于急诊救治期间发生夹层破裂死亡,分为生存亚组(n=239)和死亡亚组(n=62),对两亚组患者资料进行单因素和多因素分析,采用Logistic回归分析建立风险预测模型,采用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验判断模型的拟合优度,采用ROC曲线检验模型的预测效果。纳入2021年9月至2022年9月同一家医院急诊室收治的129例急性主动脉夹层患者对模型进行验证(验证组)。结果:301例急性主动脉夹层患者中,62例(20.6%)发生夹层破裂死亡。多因素分析结果显示,年龄(OR=1.066,95%CI:1.034~1.099)、高血压史(OR=0.377,95%CI:0.167~0.850)、夹层分型(OR=0.045,95%CI:0.006~0.364)、合并低血压(OR=4.424,95%CI:1.467~13.340)是夹层破裂死亡的危险因素;模型公式Z=-5.624+0.064×年龄-0.976×高血压史(是=1,否=0)-3.104×夹层分型(A型=0,B型=1)+1.487×合并低血压(是=1,否=0)。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果显示χ^(2)=9.328,df=8,P=0.315,AUC为0.874,灵敏度为79.0%,特异度为81.6%,最大约登指数为0.606。模型验证结果显示,AUC为0.722,灵敏度为73.7%,特异度为69.1%,准确度为89.9%。结论:年龄、高血压史、夹层分型、合并低血压是急性主动脉夹层患者急诊救治期间夹层破裂死亡的预测因子。本研究构建的模型预测效果较好,可为医护人员快速识别急性主动脉夹层破裂死亡高危患者,为采取预防性措施提供参考。
Objectives:To explore the risk factors for death from ruptured acute aortic dissection during emergency treatment,construct and validate a risk prediction model for death from ruptured acute aortic dissection during emergency treatment.Methods:A total of 301 cases of acute aortic dissection patients who were admitted to Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Fuwai Hospital from January 2018 to August 2021 were included in this study.Patients were divided into survival subgroup(n=239)and death subgroup(n=62) according to whether dissection rupture occurred in the acute stage of the disease.Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed.Logistic regression analysis was used to establish the risk prediction model.The HosmerLemeshow test was conducted to assess the model's goodness of fit,and the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC curve) was used to evaluate the model's predictive performance.A prospective validation was performed on 129 cases of acute aortic dissection patients admitted to our hospital's emergency department from September 2021 to September 2022.Results:Among the 301 cases of acute aortic dissection patients,there were 62 cases of rupture and death,with an incidence rate of 20.6%.The results of multivariate analysis showed that age(OR=1.066,95%CI:1.034-1.099),type A dissection(OR=0.045,95%CI:0.006-0.364),history of hypertension(OR=0.377,95%CI:0.167-0.850),and concomitant hypotension(OR=4.424,95%CI:1.467-13.340) were determinants of deaths.The model formula was Z=-5.624+0.064×age-0.976×history of hypertension(yes=1,no=0)-3.104×type(Type A=0,Type B=1)+1.487×concomitant hypotension(yes=1,no=0).The Hosmer-Lemeshow test result showed χ~2=9.328,df=8,P=0.315,the area under the ROC curve was 0.874,sensitivity was 79.0%,specificity was 81.6%,and the maximum Youden index was 0.606.The model validation result showed that the area under the ROC curve was 0.722,sensitivity was 73.7%,specificity was 69.1%,and accuracy was 89.9%.Conclusions:Age,history of hypertension,dissection type,and combined h
作者
张志欣
梁涛
杨艳敏
张辰
郝云霞
张艳娟
赵蕊
庞冉
杨婧
ZHANG Zhixin;LIANG Tao;YANG Yanmin;ZHANG Chen;HAO Yunxia;ZHANG Yanjuan;ZHAO Rui;PANG Ran;YANG Jing(Emergency Center,National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases and Fuwai Hospital,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,Beijing 100037,China;Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College School of Nursing,Beijing 100144,China)
出处
《中国循环杂志》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第9期903-909,共7页
Chinese Circulation Journal
基金
中国医学科学院阜外医院护理部专项科研基金(HLB2020007)。
