摘要
20世纪70年代以来,全球气候变化引发了学术界的广泛关注。本文简要回顾了最近几十年来不同时间尺度气候变化预测的观点,总结了全球变暖可能引发的环境效应。在此基础上,梳理了新生代地质温暖期的东亚环境状况。从哲学和地质历史的角度看气候维持不变是不可能的,未来要么在北半球太阳辐射的驱动下变冷,要么在温室气体的作用下变暖。地质记录和气候模拟结果大多显示,地质温暖期东亚夏季风雨带北进、降水增加;古增温导致水汽含量增加、热带辐合带北移和西太平洋副热带高压扩张是东亚季风降水增加的根本原因;从冰期-间冰期尺度看,全球变暖不仅对东亚地区是利大于弊,对全球大部分地区也是利大于弊;就提升未来气候变化预测和预估准确性而言,加强气候系统内部自然变率研究是当务之急。
Since the 1970s,global climate change has emerged as a pressing global concern.This paper provides a brief review of climate change predictions over recent decades,and synthesizes potential environmental impacts arising from global warming.In addition,it provides an overview of environmental conditions in East Asia during key warm intervals throughout the Cenozoic Era including the mid-Holocene,mid-Pliocene,mid-Miocene,and Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.Due to significant warming observed in recent decades and the anticipated increase in carbon emissions,the prevailing consensus leans toward further warming in the future.The impacts of global warming on the environment are profound,manifesting in accelerated water cycles,cryospheric melting,sea level rise,and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.Insights from the key warm periods in the geological past,supported by numerous geological records and numerical simulations,indicate that global warming shifts the summer monsoon rain belt northward,resulting in increased precipitation in East Asia.This increase in monsoon precipitation is governed by both thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms.Thermodynamically,there is an increase in atmospheric water vapor content,while dynamically,the intertropical convergence zone migrates northward and the western Pacific subtropical high expands in a warmer climate.Furthermore,analyses of geological records indicate that,contrary to popular belief,global warming has historically yielded more positive outcomes than negative ones,not only in East Asia but also across various regions worldwide.From both philosophical and geological perspectives,the expectation of an unchanging climate is unrealistic.In the future,the climate will either trend towards cooling,driven by solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere,or warming,propelled by greenhouse gas emissions.Recent decades have highlighted the challenges in accurately predicting and projecting climate change.Uncertainty primarily arises from the structural fr
作者
杨石岭
陈祚伶
黄晓芳
唐自华
张师豪
姜文英
丁仲礼
YANG Shiling;CHEN Zuoling;HUANG Xiaofang;TANG Zihua;ZHANG Shihao;JIANG Wenying;DING Zhongli(State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric and Environmental Coevolution,Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)
出处
《第四纪研究》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期1079-1092,共14页
Quaternary Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(批准号:2022YFF0800800)
中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所重点部署项目(批准号:IGGCAS-201905)共同资助。
关键词
古增温
地质记录
东亚夏季风
大气CO_(2)浓度
past global warming
geological records
East-Asian summer monsoon
atmospheric CO_(2)concentration
